Week 39_Fubon ETF adds NAB and removes VCG; The end of the inverted yield curve and crisis forecast_240923

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
The US stock market maintained its upward momentum, with the S&P 500 surpassing 5,700 points for the first time after the FED's decision to cut rates.
The US stock market continued its rally following the FED’s 0.5% rate cut decision in the September 18th meeting. Risk appetite returned, and funds flowed back into the tech sector. The DXY index fell, while other markets saw solid gains.
- US stocks averaged a 2.2% increase, EU600 +0.4%, while Nikkei 225 +4.3%, and CSI 300 +1.5%.
- Commodity index +3.5%, driven mainly by oil prices +3.2%, metals (Copper +3.0%, Aluminum +2.5%), and agricultural products (Sugar +19.8%, Coffee and Rubber +5.9%).
- DXY index -0.4%, and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose +0.05% for the week.
The FED cut rates by 50 bps to 4.75-5%, its first reduction since the COVID-19 pandemic to support the labor market. The 2024 unemployment forecast was raised from 4% to 4.4%, while the inflation forecast decreased from 2.6% to 2.3%. The FED is maintaining QT, reducing its balance sheet from $1.7T to $7.2T. The dot-plot suggests potential additional cuts of 50 bps by the end of 2024 and 100 bps in 2025, likely prompting other central banks to follow suit.  PMI from UK, JP, EU, and US; central bank decisions from CH; US jobless claims; final GDP release; and CA's GDP along with the BoE’s monetary policy report.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The domestic stock market followed global trends with foreign investors' net buying activities.
VN-Index rose 1.6%, and liquidity improved compared to the previous week. There was broad price appreciation, with many large-cap banking stocks rising. However, market movements were disrupted by the portfolio restructuring activities of ETFs toward the end of the week.
- In contrast to the previous week, banking stocks performed well, with five banks topping the list of contributors, accounting for 61% of the VN-Index’s gains.
- 13/18 sectors posted declines. The Construction and Building Materials, Financial Services, and Healthcare sectors gained more than 2.3%, while Utilities, Oil and Gas, and Food and Beverage declined between -0.4% and -2%.
- Foreign investors shifted to net buy $43.2 million, compared to last week’s net sell of $39 million.
After considering buying during price dips in volatile sessions as mentioned last week, investors may either hold their positions or sell some for short-term trading, as the VN-Index hasn't broken its peak.
The third tropical storm caused VND 40,000 billion in damages and reduced GDP by 0.15%, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment. The Prime Minister outlined six tasks to mitigate the impact and urged the banking sector to consider policies for debt extensions, loan suspensions, and interest-free packages for affected customers. He also called for a resumption of production, increased public investment disbursement, and set a goal of 7% GDP growth for this year.