ANV_BUY_TP 51,200VND_Upside 22__Expectations From Exports To The US_BSC Company Update

VALUATION

BSC maintains its BUY recommendation for ANV with a new target price for 2022 of VND68,900 per share (upside 22% compared to 06/06/2022 price) after (i) Adjusting the 2022 profit forecast (+29% compared to the previous forecast due to a price increase + 40%) and (ii) PE vs FCFE valuation with a density of 40%/60%.

FORECAST BUSINESS RESULTS

BSC expects ANV's revenue and profit after tax in 2022 to reach 4.311 billion (+23% YoY) and 874 billion (5.8 times higher than the same period). EPS 2022 is expected to reach 6,360 VND/share, PE fw is 8.8, equivalent to the average P/E for the period 2017 - 2020.

BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR 2022

Benefiting from the positive outlook forthe pangasius industry: expectations of exports to the US and the restoration of Chinese market exports in 2H.2022

Expect to have advantages when raw fish prices increase and reduce transportation costs in 2022

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

ANV is in an uptrend. Technical indicators and abundant trading volume located above the MA20 line both support the stock's gains. Investors can open positions at the support level of 55.6 defined by Fibonacci, take profits at the target price of 68 and cut losses when the stock falls out of the support zone 51.8 defined by Fibonacci.

BUSINESS UPDATE

April's business results continued to grow strongly: revenue reached 433 billion and profit after tax reached 116 billion. Accumulated 4M.2022, revenue and profit after tax reached 1,644 billion and 323 billion, net profit margin reached 19.6%.

Revenue structure by product: frozen pangasius continued to account for the main proportion (~78%), followed by products from pangasius (fish oil, fish grilled chopped fish) accounting for 18%.

Revenue structure by market: Vietnam accounted for the largest proportion (~32%), then Thailand accounted for 16%, China increased again to account for 7%.