Strategy Report

BSC_Vietnam Macro Market Outlook 2023_EN_It's always darkest before the dawn_20230118

Date

18/01/2023
Language

Tiếng Việt
Number of Downloads

4797

Detailed report

In terms of macroeconomics in 2023, BSC forecasts 2 scenarios for GDP growth: 6.2% and 6.7% in 2023, and 6.3% and 6.6% in 2024; CPI at 5.1% and 3.5% in 2023 and at 4.2% and 3.2% in 2024, respectively. In both scenarios, interest rate may stay at 7.0% and 6.5% in 2023, then gradually decrease to 6.5% and 6.0% in 2024. The exchange rate may increase slightly and stably from 23,700 to 24,400 in the next 2 years.

In terms of securities market in 2023, VN-Index can recover thanks to: (1) The Government plans to amend some regulations on corporate bonds, promotes public investment and supports businesses; (2) VN-Index's P/E and P/B are still at historic lows, at 11.0 and 1.6 times, respectively; (3) Foreign investors returned by the end of 2022 and are likely to remain positive in 2023. VN-Index is forecasted to increase by 2.0% to 1,028 points in scenario 1 and increase by 22.8% to 1,240.3 points in scenario 2. (Refer to the methods of Forecasting by large-cap stocks and large-cap stock technical analysis).

In terms of topics of investment in 2023, Information Technology, Industrial Park, Consumer Retail, Oil & Gas, Banking and Aviation Services sectors were positively evaluated in 2023. 3 investment themes in 2023: (1) Lower interest rates and reversal policies: Banking (VCB, ACB, MBB), Real Estate (VHM, KDH, NLG, VRE), Industrial real state (GVR, IDC ); (2) Public investment: (HPG, PLC, PC1); (3) China reopening: Chemicals (DGC, DPM, DRC), Fisheries (VHC, ANV), Logistics (ACV); (4) Other stocks: VNM, FPT, MWG, PLX, PVS, PVD, POW, PVT,...

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