BSC Vietnam Sector Outlook 2Q2023_EN

Dear Value Investors,  

Over the years, BSC often provides investment topics, general assessment of possible opportunities, helping investors to have more options throughout the year. The year 2023 is forecasted to face many difficulties with the global economic growth being forecast to slow down. BSC continues to raise issues that will have great influence and lead the market in 2023, including:

1. Decrease the GDP growth forecast to 5.8% in the optimistic case and the pessimistic case to 5.4% from the old forecast of 6.7% in optimistic GDP growth at the beginning of 2023
2. Promoting the state capital disbursement and public investment in 2H2023 will play an important role in recovering and growing the economy from 2023 to 2025
3. The number of new open accounts plunged sharply
4. Foreign investors still maintained a cumulative net buying in 4M/2023, but the momentum has a sign of decelerating
5. Profit growth in Q1/2023 saw a notable dip, dropping by -19.6% over the same time, and it is anticipated that profits in the following quarters will progressively increase in comparison to Q1/2023
6. As a result, under a favorable scenario, the profit growth for the entire market, as predicted by BSC, can reach 2.8% growth
7. Market valuation becomes less desirable in Q1/2023 due to declining earnings growth

BSC believes that Vietnam's current economic indicators show that we are still in the DECELERATION phase, characterized by most of the signs such as rising inflation, rising deposit rates that remains at a high level, and stock prices still being in the correction phase. Therefore, the move toward the recovery phase will need some additional important factors including (1) The peak of deposit and lending interest rates, (2) The peak of inflation, followed by a decline, and (3) The formation of a sustainable uptrend in stock price.

 BSC wishes all investors a wise, lucky and successful investment year!