Week 40_Assessment on the Central Bank of China's supporting package_240930

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
China's stock market skyrocketed after a series of supporting policies
China's stock indexes increased by an average of 13% after receiving many monetary and fiscal support policies. Global stocks and commodity markets continued to increase while the DXY index decreased slightly. 
- The US stock market increased on average by 0.8%, EU600 +2.2%, Nikkei 225 +3.4%, CSI 300 +14.9%. 
- Commodity index increased by 0.9%; The main contribution was from the increase in gas 12.9%, metals (Precious metals +1.8%; Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum from +5.0% to 7.0%) and agricultural products (Cafe +4.3%, Rubber +5.1%) while oil price decreased -4.2%.
- DXY Index -0.05% and US TP 10y increased +0.04% during the week. 
Following the decision to lower short-term policy interest rates and inject 10.6 billion USD into the system to improve liquidity on September 23, the PBOC is considering injecting 142 billion USD into state-owned banks. This could be a large-scale intervention in the banking system since the 2008 global crisis. The Chinese government allocated $22 billion USD to provide one-time cash grants to the underprivileged. Monetary and fiscal measures were undertaken simultaneous in an effort to combat the economic downturn, just before the upcoming Politburo meeting (see also the weekly topic section). 
PMI China, UK, EU, and US; First published CPI and EU unemployment rate; Application for unemployment benefits, changes in nonfarm payrolls, and the US unemployment rate are the headline news next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index is close to the yearly peak, thanks to price gains in banking stocks
The pressure of profit sealing during the weekend session caused VN-Index to lose its upward momentum and could not maintain the level of 1,300 points achieved during the session. For the whole week, the index increased by 1.5% with liquidity increasing by 23% compared to last week.
- Banking stocks are the main driving force of the market's increase. Stocks in the industry occupy the top 10 positions, contributing 13.2 points, equivalent to 70% of the increase in VN-Index.
- The market had 14/18 industries increasing, of which Banking, financial services and basic resources increased from 2.7% - 3.1% while Entertainment services, information technology, and healthcare increased well this week. before returning to decline.
- Foreign investors net sold 24 million USD compared to net buying of 43.2 million USD last week.
Before expanding short-term investment activity, investors keep their investment portfolio balanced and wait for the VN-Index to surpass its top.
According to the ADB, Vietnam's GDP will rise by 6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025. The report outlines a range of domestic, geopolitical, and US election-related dangers. This organisation also recommends fiscal stimulus measures, encouraging public investment, and maintaining interest rates low. UOB report lowers growth forecast from 6% to 5.9% due to the impact of Typhoon Yagi. This bank forecasts that SBV will keep the policy interest rate unchanged until 2024 and forecasts the exchange rate at 24,500 in the fourth quarter.