Week 22_Global Monetary Policy Update as of May 2024_20240530

- US Stock Market down an average of 0.7%, EU600 -0.7%, Nikkei 225 -0.3%; CSI300 -2.1%.

- Commodity Index +1.4%; oil price -3.9%, gas -4.3%, precious metals -3% while agricultural product prices increased strongly.

- DXY +0.4% and US 10-year Treasury yield +0.05% for the week.

FOMC minutes show FED officials are cautious about the timing of monetary policy easing due to inflation slowing down in recent months. Most members are optimistic about the growth outlook, although they acknowledge that growth will slow down in 2024. The market is adjusting expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 60% probability of the FED cutting rates in September.

Next week, key information includes the second release of GDP estimates, US unemployment claims, the CPI, and the OPEC meeting.

 

VN-Index decreased 0.9%, ending its continuous 4-week increase. The market recorded 42% of stocks increasing in price, but 18 out of 19 sectors increased in price.

-SBV increased OMO and repo interest rates in response to pressure from the high exchange rate. Deposit interest rates increased at some banks.

 - There was an active cash flow in the insurance, oil and gas, and utilities sectors. Stocks with information about state capital divestment, large-cap stocks on the Upcom exchange maintained good momentum.

- Foreign investors pushed strong net selling of 156 million USD, nearly double the previous week.

Strong selling pressure caused the market to retreat before unfavorable domestic and international news. The trend is still unclear, investors still need to be cautious, although they can also consider buying a portion during sessions with strong declines.

The Government's Socioeconomic Development Plan 2025 just passed focuses on management, perfecting institutions, and restructuring the economy with a focus on public investment, state-owned enterprises, and credit institutions. Implementing domestic revenue collection to increase by 5-7%; central and local government budget forecasts adhere to targets and implementation.