Week 44_Forcasting the volume of buying/selling of domestic ETF in Q4/2024_241028

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
US stocks market fell most of the week, stocks are differentiated by seasonality of earnings announcement 
Without any expectation of a quick Fed rate cut following the FOMC members' announcement, US stock indexes fell most of the week. 160 S&P 500 companies announced earnings with a 3.4% increase, below market expectations. The market was divided, Tesla rose 22% on positive news while IBM fell 6% in Thursday trading. Commodity indexes continued to decline while DXY and US treasury bond maintained their upward momentum.
- US stocks market fell by an average of 0.9%, EU600 -1.1%, Nikkei 225 -2.1%; China's stock market continued to recover with an average increase of +1%.
- Commodity index increased by 0.3%; contributed by energy prices (oil +2.7%, gas +11.7%), precious metal prices have leveled off after a period of increase (gold slightly decreased -0.1%, silver -1.7%).
- DXY index +0.6% and US treasury bond 10y increased +0.12% on positive US economic data.
IMF lowers global growth forecast by 0.1% to 3.2% in 2025 and maintains the forecast of 3.2% in 2024, inflation decreases from 5.8% to 4.3% in 2025. This organization evaluates geopolitical and policy risks protect global economic influence. The IMF is also concerned about global public debt, expected to reach 100 trillion USD, equivalent to 93% of GDP by the end of this year, and lowered China's growth forecast by 0.2% to 4.8% in 2024 before the real estate crisis.
US Consumer Confidence Index; CPI Australia, EU; GDP announced for the first time in the United States, EU, Canada; Interest rates and BOJ monetary policy reports; Unemployment claims and the US unemployment rate are the news to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The pressure on the VN-Index increased as it fell below the short-term support zone
Large-cap stocks collectively weakened, causing the VN-Index to drop 2.6% with liquidity decreasing by 5% compared to the previous week. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued treasury bills amid growing exchange rate pressures, and foreign investors continued to net sell, creating significant pressure on the market's performance over the past week.
- Bank stocks fell broadly, contributing more than half of the index's decline. Additionally, other key stocks also weakened, submerging recovery efforts during the week. 
- Investor sentiment and cash flow weakened, with the market declining across the board in all 18 sectors. The Chemical, Financial Services, and Basic Resources sectors fell by 2.6% to 5.9%.
- Foreign investors continued to net sell of 32 million USD compared to 80 million USD the previous week.
Investor sentiment and cash flow remain weak, with trading activities noted in the price range. Accordingly, investors can take advantage of price declines to increase their stock positions, focusing on those with positive Q3 earnings results and 2024 prospects.
As of October 25th, 620 out of 1,664 companies listed on three exchanges have announced their Q3 earnings results with a growth rate of 19%. The Q3 earnings results show a clear divergence. The market has 53% of companies reporting positive profit growth and 19% reporting losses. The group contributing to absolute profit growth includes LPB, TCB, MSN, and FPT, while HND, VGC, AGG, and ACB saw declines compared to the same period.
The government proposed several basic targets for 2025, such as GDP growth of 6.5-7%, GDP per capita of $4,900, CPI around 4.5%, credit growth of 15%, budget revenue 5% higher than in 2024, and the completion of 3,000 km of highways.