Week 45_Some notable information ahead of the U.S. Presidential election_241104

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
The U.S. stock market saw significant declines ahead of weak earnings results from major tech stocks. 
The market dropped sharply on the last trading day, October 31, with U.S. indices averaging a 1% decrease in October. Negative earnings from tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and AMD, along with rising uncertainty ahead of the election, negatively impacted the market. The DXY ended its streak of gains while bond yields maintained a slight upward trend.
- U.S. stock market down an average of 1.6%, EU600 down 2.6%, Nikkei 225 up 0.9%; Chinese market returned to a fluctuating position with a 1% drop.
- Commodity index continued to decline by 0.8%; mainly due to energy prices (oil down 1.6%, gas down 12.2%); metals (silver down 3%, nickel down 3.4%).
- DXY down 0.4% and U.S. 10y Treasury yield slightly up by 0.03% for the week.
U.S. GDP in Q3 increased by 2.8%, weaker than expected, but this figure shows that the U.S. economy remains strong despite the high-interest rate environment. Consumer spending, contributing two-thirds of the growth, rose well at 3.7%, maintaining growth momentum. Along with PCE decreasing by 0.2% to 2.1%, near the Fed’s 2% target, the GDP data supports the possibility of no strong easing measures being needed, with a 0.25% interest rate cut in the 7/11 meeting forecasted by most experts.
PMI index for Canada, UK, EU, and U.S.; Interest rate and monetary policy from the November meeting of central banks in Australia, the UK, and the Fed; M2 money supply, new loans, and CPI in China; Unemployment claims and U.S. Presidential election are the focus of next week’s information.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The VN-Index fluctuated below the resistance level of 1,269 points.
With alternating gains and losses, the VN-Index closed up 0.2% while liquidity dropped by 3% compared to the previous week. Moderate gains were seen in mid-cap sectors and small to mid-cap stocks. Large-cap stocks showed divergence during the Q3 earnings season and the domestic ETFs’ portfolio restructuring week.
- The top 3 contributors added 5 points, including VCB, CTG, and HVN, while VHM, VNM, and MSN took away 4.5 points from the VN-Index.
- 14 out of 18 sectors gained, mainly focused on mid-cap groups like Tourism & Leisure +5.7%, Basic Resources and Retail +1.5%, while Real Estate, Oil & Gas, and Food & Beverage dropped by 1% - 2%.
- Foreign investors increased their net selling to USD 301 million compared to USD 32 million last week.
As of November 1st, 1,071 out of 1,664 companies on the three exchanges have announced their Q3 earnings, showing a net profit growth of 17.2%. 57% of companies reported positive profit growth, while 17% incurred losses. Most large-cap stocks have reported their results, with the VN30 companies growing 15.1% YoY and all 23 banks growing 17.3%. Divergence occurred not only in the market but also within large-cap stocks, with 7 out of 30 VN30 stocks and 6 out of 23 banks experiencing negative growth compared to the same period last year. The remaining companies will release their reports next week, with minimal impact on the overall market results.
The Q3 earnings season has essentially concluded, and next week’s U.S. Presidential election will be a major factor causing significant market volatility. Investors should maintain a reasonable investment proportion and wait for market fluctuations to accumulate fundamentally sound stocks with good prospects for 2025.