Week 47_The VN-Index continues its short-term downward trend_241120

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Short-term profit-taking pressure and the Fed Chairman's stance dampen the excitement in the U.S. stock market.
After the Fed Chairman's speech in Dallas, investors reduced their expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to a decline in stocks and an increase in bond yields. The USD maintained its strong upward trend, surpassing the peaks of 2023-2024, creating significant pressure on other currencies.
- Stock markets adjusted broadly: U.S. average -1%, EU600 -0.7%, Nikkei 225 -2.6%, CSI 300 -3.2%.
- Commodity index -1.9%; oil prices -3.8%, metals (gold -4.5%, copper -4.6%, zinc -5.3%). Agricultural products bucked the trend with coffee +9.7%, cocoa +23%.
- The DXY index continued its strong upward trend +1.6%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.15% over the week.
The Fed Chairman conveyed a message of not rushing to cut interest rates during his speech to business leaders in Dallas. The strong growth of the U.S. economy will give the Fed more time to carefully consider the scale and pace of monetary policy easing. A robust labor market and the challenge of bringing inflation back to the 2% target suggest that the economy does not yet show signs of needing a rapid rate cut. Conversely, China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package following Trump's victory. Last week, China continued to introduce new tax policies, including reductions in transfer taxes and VAT for housing transactions. These are strong measures aimed at reviving the real estate sector, which contributes 25% to GDP growth.
Upcoming key events include the G20 meeting, CPI data from Canada, the UK, and the EU, 1- and 5-year interest rates from China, PMI data from the UK, the EU, and the U.S., the Bank of England's monetary policy report, and U.S. unemployment claims.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The VN-Index continues its short-term downward trend.
The market unexpectedly dropped sharply after a week of struggling below the resistance level. VN-Index fell by 2.5% with liquidity increasing by 27% compared to the previous week. Large-cap stocks, especially banking stocks, declined significantly, leading to a rapid decrease in the index.
- Six banking stocks in the top 10 contributed to an 11.5-point drop in the VN-Index. Mid-cap and small-cap stocks mostly followed the overall downward trend of the market.
- 12 out of 18 sectors declined, with financial services, retail, auto parts, and oil & gas falling by over 4%, while media, tourism, and entertainment rose by over 5% thanks to a few key stocks in these sectors.
- Foreign investors maintained a high net selling volume of $157 million compared to $136 million the previous week.
The National Assembly has passed a resolution on the socio-economic development plan for 2025 with key targets such as GDP growth of 6.5% - 7%, striving for 7% - 7.5%; CPI around 4.5%; per capita GDP around $4,900; labor productivity growth rate of about 5.3% - 5.4%; urban unemployment rate below 4%; and a budget deficit of 3.8% of GDP. Therefore, growth targets remain a priority in 2025, with fiscal and monetary policies expected to support high growth targets.
Market movements are quite unpredictable, but valuations have gradually returned to reasonable levels. Investors should continue to maintain a reasonable investment ratio and consider gradually increasing their holdings during market fluctuations next week with a view towards 2025.