Industry Report

BSC Vietnam Sector Outlook 4Q2024_EN

Date

25/11/2024
Expert name

Lưu Thùy Linh
Language

Tiếng Việt
Number of Downloads

0

Detailed report

Dear Investors,

2025F profit growth and reasonable valuation will be the core factors for selection

The market-wide profit growth is forecast to reach >15% YoY thanks to the recovery of output & margin, exchange rate interest & interest expense reduction over the same period.

The economy has begun to recover, positive credit growth is expected to reach 14-15% in 2025, accompanied by a low Q3/2023 profit base in some industries such as: Banking, Basic Resources, Chemicals, Utilities, Retail Construction, and Materials

EPS growth in 2025 is expected to reach ~20%, which is the driving force for the upward movement of VN-Index

Narrowing the valuation gap between the Bluechip group and the Mid-Small cap group

The large-cap group of stocks is expected to continue to maintain superior performance to the mid-small cap group until the profit growth of the small and medium-cap group catches up in 2025. Recommendation to prioritize large-cap stocks 1H2025 and 2H2025 as opportunities for small and medium-sized stocks

Valuation reflects growth in 2024 – Looking to 2025 for opportunities – P/E is more focused and P/B will be the lower when the market is volatile.

Reverse wind" in foreign cash flow trend & Expectation of market upgrade in 2025

Central banks start the monetary easing cycle when economic growth shows signs of weakening

Leading to a gradual reversal of capital flows to emerging market areas with attractive valuations and stories as well as reducing exchange rate risk pressure with EM countries: Prioritizing large-cap stocks for the above story

BSC wishes investors a year of wise, fortunate, and successful investments!