Week 48_Update on some notable highlights of the 8th session of the 15th National Assembly meeting_241127

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
U.S. stock market maintains upward momentum with rotation into cyclical stocks
After a strong rally in tech stocks, capital has shifted to cyclical stocks benefiting from expectations of an accelerating economy, keeping the U.S. stock market on a positive trajectory. Anticipation of new policies under the new President also propelled Bitcoin to a new record high, surpassing $99,000.
- U.S. stock indices rose an average of 1.1%; EU600 +0.2%; Nikkei 225 -1.4%; CSI 300 -2.5%.
- Commodity indices increased by 2.9%; oil prices +5.1%, natural gas +21.4%; precious metals saw a robust recovery (gold +5.6%, silver +3.6%).
- The DXY index maintained its uptrend, rising +0.8%, while the U.S. 10-year treasury yield slightly declined by -0.05% for the week.
Uneven economic recovery and internal challenges faced by major economies may create headwinds for the global economy. The ECB has warned of rising public debt, akin to the 2020 crisis, in its regular report. Political instability is widening bond yield spreads in high-debt countries. The BOJ is also hinting at diverging from global easing policies, considering a rate hike to curb inflation. Meanwhile, inflation in Europe and the UK has resurfaced and poses a broader risk, particularly with new policies from President Trump drawing market attention as 2025 approaches. Key upcoming economic indicators include: U.S's Consumer confidence index, existing home sales, jobless claims, and the second GDP estimate;  EU, Japan CPI data; China: PMI data; FOMC meeting minutes.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index rebounds from support zone, opening up short-term recovery opportunities
Rebounding from the support level, VN-Index rose by 0.8% with liquidity improving by 27% compared to the previous week. Contrary to last week’s trend, large-cap stocks, particularly Banking stocks, helped the market reverse course, ending two consecutive weeks of decline.
- 11/18 sectors gained, with entertainment services, oil & gas, and banking rising over 1.5%, while media, construction, and building materials fell over 1.6%.
- Foreign investors maintained strong net selling of $201 million compared to $157 million in the previous week, bringing the total net selling value since the start of the month to $507 million.
The semi-annual report on "Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners with the United States" listed China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Germany, and Vietnam on the "monitoring list" for exceeding two thresholds regarding bilateral surplus and current account balance. While the U.S. Department of Treasury assessed Vietnam's monetary policy positively and continued to determine "no currency manipulation," this issue could become a hot topic during President Trump’s term as trade protectionism takes center stage.
After increasing weightings last week, investors continue to monitor price movements around the resistance zone of 1,240 points for potential short-term trading opportunities.