Week 49_Forecasting number of shares transacted by foreign ETF funds Q4/2024_241203

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
US Stocks Continue to Hit Record Highs Before Pausing Ahead of Thanksgiving
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averages both hit new records as investors shrugged off concerns about new Trump tariffs. The indexes retreated ahead of the holiday but the US stock market is still outperforming other regions.
- US stock indexes rose +0.7% on average, EU600 -0.3%, Nikkei 225 -0.4%; CSI 300 +1.4%.
- Commodities rose 0.2% and saw a sharp divergence in oil prices -3.6%, gold and silver fell 2.2% on average while agricultural prices (Coffee +8.7%, Coca +6.5%) and metals (lead +2.7%, zinc +2.9%).
- DXY index ended the streak of -1.5%, along with US TP 10y decreased -0.16% in the week.
PCE index increased 0.2% mom and 2.3% yoy, core PCE increased faster by 0.1% and 0.7% in the same period. Contributing to the CPI increase came from housing, which increased 0.4% in October while consumer spending was stable. Previously, in the FOMC minutes released on November 26, Fed officials believed that the gradual inflation and strong labor market would allow for gradual rate cuts. Officials did not signal the next interest rate decision. With inflationary pressure increasing in October, the Fed is facing a more difficult decision on whether to cut interest rates at the December meeting. OPEC meeting; PMIs UK, Japan, China, EU and US; GDP Australia; Canadian and US jobless claims and unemployment rates are the news to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
V-shaped recovery, VN-Index is heading towards strong resistance at 1,265 points
VN-Index maintained its recovery momentum after 2 sessions of stagnation around 1,240 points to record an increase of 1.7%. The increase was widespread, although liquidity decreased by 17% compared to last week.
- Large-cap stocks are the leaders, interspersed with shifts into mid-cap stocks and highly speculative stocks.
- 17/18 sectors increased, real estate was the only sector to decrease by -0.7% while information technology, healthcare, and auto parts increased by over 3%.
- After many weeks of net selling, foreign investors returned to net buying 38 million USD compared to a strong net selling of 201 million USD last week.
At the 8th session, the National Assembly passed the Resolution on the real estate market and social housing. The Resolution mentions a number of main contents: (1) Implementing regulations and effectively enforcing laws on real estate market management; (2) Resolutely handling real estate projects facing difficulties and legal problems; and (3) Increasing real estate supply in line with the income of the majority of people. The Resolution assigns the Government to issue an implementation plan in the first quarter of 2025. These are contents that not only the people but also investors expect to create positive changes for the real estate industry in 2025. The market is gradually recovering to a neutral level, the recovery trend is unsustainable because it is not accompanied by improved liquidity. Investors should consider reducing the proportion at the 1,265 barrier to proactively conduct short-term transactions.