Week 50_Cash flow returns, VN-Index heads towards peak range of 1,280 - 1,300 points_241212

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
U.S. stock indices continue to set record highs
Following S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the Dow Jones index surpassed the 45,000-point milestone for the first time. Indices stabilized after record highs, awaiting the employment report on December 6. Over five trading days, U.S. stock indices gained 0.8%. Other markets saw insignificant fluctuations.
- U.S. stock indices averaged +0.8%, EU600 +1.8%, Nikkei 225 +2.3%, CSI 300 +1.5%.
- Commodity indices decreased by 0.1%, mainly contributed by natural gas -9%, coal -4.9%, gold -0.6%, while other metals like silver, copper, iron ore, and tin rose between 2-4%.
- The DXY index was flat, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slightly increased +0.01% during the week.
The Fed Chair stated that the U.S. economy is currently more favorable compared to September when rates were cut. The Fed may slow rate cuts and aim to find a neutral interest rate. The next Fed meeting on December 17-18 is expected to see a 0.25% cut, with a 75% probability according to CME Group statistics. This expectation appears more optimistic compared to recent Fed views. Next week’s ECB meeting leans closer to a possible rate cut to stimulate growth, according to the French Governor and other ECB members. The market also expects the ECB to reduce rates by 0.25% next week.
Japan and UK GDP; China’s CPI, M2, and new loans; U.S. unemployment claims; and interest rate and monetary policy updates from the central banks of Australia, Canada, Switzerland, and Europe are key information to watch in the coming week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Cash flow returns, VN-Index heads towards the annual peak range of 1,280 – 1,300 points
After mid-week corrections, the VN-Index unexpectedly accelerated due to positive news on market upgrade potential and foreign investors returning to net buying. The index recorded a 1.6% increase, extending a 2-week gain streak with liquidity rising by 33% compared to the previous week.
- Positive evaluation by FTSE on Vietnam's changes meeting upgrade criteria and optimism for an upgrade in September 2025 led to the most positive trading sessions in months.
- Major stocks like FPT, HPG, banking stocks, and particularly the securities sector stocks were key drivers supporting the market.
- Foreign investors returned to net selling $7 million compared to a net purchase of $38 million last week, and showed a trend of net buying in the latter half of the trading week.
November’s socio-economic indicators continue to demonstrate stable macroeconomic conditions and strong growth momentum, supporting high GDP expectations for Q4 and 2024: November and 11-month industrial production index +8.9% and +8.4%yoy; Total retail sales of goods and services +8.8% and +8.8%yoy; State budget investment +5.6% and +2.4%yoy, 11-month state budget revenue +16.1%yoy; FDI +7.1%yoy; 11-month import-export turnover +14.4%yoy and trade surplus $24.3 billion; 11-month average CPI +3.69%yoy, core inflation +2.7%; International tourists reached 15.8 million, up 41% yoy.
VN-Index is strengthened by one momentum-driven session, opening short-term trading opportunities. Investors should consider accelerating trading activities with well-positioned stocks next week.