Week 52_VN-Index is temporarily balanced around SMA 100 and 200

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Recovery at the end of the week, Dow Jones ends the longest losing streak since 1974
The negative signal from the FED, along with profit-taking pressure, weighed on the US stock market and key stock markets before the holiday. The US stock indexes fell quite a bit along with the 10-session losing streak from Dow Jones. The PCE index announced on Friday at 2.4 yoy, lower than forecast, has eased some of the worries, thereby helping the stock markets recover.
- The US stock indexes decreased by an average of -2.1%, EU600 -2.8%, Nikkei 225 -2.0%; CSI 300 -0.1%.
- Commodity index -0.5%, commodities decreased across the board such as oil prices -2.6%, gold and metals decreased by 1-4%; in contrast, natural gas prices +14%, agricultural products such as coffee, cocoa, and wood increased by 2-5%.
- The DXY and US TP 10y indexes maintained an upward trend of +0.75%, +0.12% from the FED messages. The FED cut interest rates by 0.25% for the third consecutive time to 4.25% - 4.5% as forecast by the market. This organization sent a cautious signal about the future. The dot-plot chart showing interest rate expectations of members shows that the FED forecasts only 2 more cuts in 2025, halved compared to the forecast in September, 2 times in 2026 and 1 time in 2027. The Committee also adjusted the long-term "neutral" interest rate to 3%, 0.1% higher than the September report. The FED raised its full-year GDP forecast by 0.5% to 2.5% and increased overall and core inflation to 2.4% and 2.8%. The 2025 Fed decision is data-driven but the message is clear to markets.
UK, Canada GDP final releases; Australian Reserve Monetary Policy Minutes; US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Confidence Index and Jobless Claims are the key news to watch next week as countries head into the holidays.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The market retreated to a more balanced zone below 1,260 points
VN-Index decreased for the second consecutive week by 0.3% with liquidity remaining almost flat compared to the previous week. Stock market US stocks adjusted, foreign investors net sold, exchange rate pressure and weakened cash flow caused VN-Index to fluctuate and retreat to a more balanced point.
- Large stocks differentiated during the week of futures contracts expiring and ETF portfolio restructuring. HVN increased sharply while most large stocks were under pressure to decrease.
- The market differentiated strongly with 11/18 sectors increasing. Insurance, resources, banking decreased by more than 1% while industrial goods and services increased by more than 1%.
- Foreign investors net sold 50 million USD compared to net selling of 46 million USD last week.
- Political restructuring activities continued to heat up in recent times. The Ministry of Home Affairs announced that the Government will reduce 5 ministries to 13 ministries and 04 ministerial-level agencies, reduce 3 agencies to 5 agencies under the Government, reduce 12/13 General Departments, 500 departments under General Departments, 177 departments under Ministries. The revolution to streamline the apparatus follows the motto of the Central Government doing first, the local authorities doing later. No one is left behind in the process of streamlining the apparatus, focusing on encouraging subjects to retire immediately and after 12 months when the organization implements the arrangement.
The market has not changed compared to last week in terms of trend and liquidity, trading activities with thin profit margins continue to be recommended until the new trend is confirmed.