Week 53_Forecast of Changes in VN30 and VNFIN Lead Index Components for Q1/2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
U.S. Stock Market Recovers with "Santa Claus Rally" Effect
After a 10-session losing streak, the Dow Jones rose for 5 consecutive sessions. The "Santa Claus rally" effect, which occurs during the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 trading days of the new year, with an average increase of 1.3% in the S&P 500 since 1950, is repeating this year. The DXY index and the 10-year U.S. government bond yield continue to show strong growth.
- U.S. stock indices increased an average 1.5%, EU600 +0.5%, Nikkei 225 +3.8%, CSI 300 +1.4%.
- The commodity index rose 0.5%, metal and precious metal by 0.2%-2%, Urea +4.7%, while natural gas -8%, rubber -3.6%, and cocoa -8.4%.
- The DXY index +0.4%,with the 10-year U.S. government bond yield +0.09%.
The global economy enters 2024 with central banks cutting interest rates. Stock markets in the U.S. and Europe reached record highs, creating a boom for the ultra-rich with 141 new billionaires. However, Europe is lagging behind the U.S. due to political deadlocks in two major economies, Germany and France, as well as a lack of investment and skills in the region. China is under increasing pressure to shift its growth model. The policies of the newly elected U.S. president are causing the USD to strengthen, slowing the pace of interest rate cuts, raising the risk of inflation, and potentially leading to trade wars in 2025. Furthermore, conflicts around the globe are putting the global economy at uncertain crossroads. According to the latest IMF report: "Prepare for a period of instability."
PMI data for Canada, the UK, Japan, China, the EU, and the U.S., along with Vietnam, existing home sales, initial jobless claims, U.S. crude oil reserves, and Vietnam's PMI, are noteworthy information for the upcoming week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The index surged, supported by the banking sector
The VN-Index rose 1.4% with liquidity up 21%, aligning with global markets during the holiday week. Foreign investors returned to net selling, banking stocks helped the market quickly recover to previous week’s peak.
- Banking stocks contributed 14.2 points, accounting for 80% of the week's gains, driving the market's rise as capital rotated swiftly across sectors.
- Strong market breadth: 17/18 sectors gained. Media, tourism, and construction rose over 3%, while oil & gas declined by 2%.
- Foreign investors net bought USD 21 million, reversing USD 50 million net sell from last week.
The ADB raised 2025 growth forecast to 6.6% (from 6.2%) due to strong exports, robust FDI, and favorable global trends. Challenges from international conflicts are seen as modest, while reforms in public investment, bidding, electricity, and public-private partnerships create new growth drivers. The VN-Index remains in a sideways-up phase, with opportunities to reduce holdings at short-term peaks or engage in low-margin trading until new trend emerges.