Week 01_Assessment when Circular 02 expires

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Psychology cannot support the US market when there is no supporting news
The “Santa Claus rally” effect is unlikely to happen when the US stock indexes fell in the first trading session of 2025. The market has no supporting information while the DXY is high and technology stocks are declining, affecting market volatility after a strong increase in 2024.
- US stock indexes decreased by an average of -1.4%, EU600 +0.7%, Nikkei 225 +1.8%; CSI 300 -4.1%.
- Commodity index increased by 2.7%, of which oil +3.4%, gas +5%; precious metals increased by over 1%, and agricultural prices such as rubber +5.6%, Coca +13.8%.
- DXY index +1.1%, along with US TP 10y -0.08% in the week.
BankRegData reports that the record high level of credit card defaults in the United States has caused credit card companies to write off $46 billion in delinquent loans in the first 9 months of 2024, up 50% yoy and the highest since 2010. Credit card debt of US citizens also reached $1,170 billion according to the FED report, up 8.1% yoy. The increase in debt and bad debt of cards is a sign that the financial health of low-income consumers is weakening and will affect growth in 2025. This will also be one of the factors that the FED will consider in the process of lowering interest rates to a reasonable level in 2025.
UK, EU, US service PMI; Australian, Swiss, EU, Chinese CPI; Changes in non-farm payrolls, unemployment claims, US unemployment rate and FOMC monetary policy minutes; Vietnam's macroeconomic data for the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024 is the information to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Selling pressure increases, VN-Index retreats to low prices to find new equilibrium
VN-Index falls 1.6% with liquidity down 20% in the week. The US stock market adjusts and foreign investors increase net selling. Large stocks weaken after causing the index to fall and return to a short-term downtrend.
- Banking stocks, after supporting the market in the last week of the year, have turned around and adjusted, contributing half of the market's decline.
- Some small-cap stocks still maintain their upward momentum, but the breadth of the decline still dominates with 13/18 industries losing points. The information technology and construction industries increased by over 0.8% while insurance, financial services, and oil and gas decreased by over 1.1%.
- Foreign investors net sold 30 million USD after net buying 21 million USD last week.
Total state budget revenue reached 1,997 trillion VND, exceeding the estimate by 17.4%. State budget expenditure reached 1,830 trillion VND, equivalent to 86.4% of the estimate. Active budget revenue helped reduce the budget deficit to 3.4% of GDP, lower than the estimate. Government bonds mobilized 330.4 trillion VND with an average interest rate of 2.52%/year. These are positive figures for the financial sector in the context of implementing policies to exempt, reduce and extend taxes of 197 trillion VND for businesses and people, contributing to stabilizing the macro economy and controlling inflation. In 2025, the Ministry of Finance will continue to focus on administrative reform solutions, enhancing digitalization in financial and tax management and promoting disbursement of public investment capital. Stocks supporting the market continued to weaken, creating downward pressure next week. Investors can consider declining sessions when the index is close to 1,240 points to reopen buying positions for the 2025 investment vision.