Week 06_Sustained post-holiday gains, extending three-week uptrend

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS 
U.S. Stock Market Maintains Upward Momentum Amid New Trade War Developments
Concerns over the trade war temporarily eased as the U.S. President paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The U.S. stock market showed mixed movements, reacting to earnings reports from listed companies while awaiting the January jobs report. Developments in the new trade war also impacted other markets, leading to declines in U.S. bond yields and the DXY index, while gold prices hit a new record high.  
- U.S. stock indices rebounded by an average of 0.7%, EU600 +0.9%, Nikkei 225 -1.8%, CSI 300 +2.6%.  
- The commodity index rose +0.4%, natural gas prices surged +11%, and metals saw strong gains, including precious metals (Gold +2.4%, Silver +3.1%) and industrial metals (Copper +5.4%, Iron ore +4.82%, Zinc +4%).  
- The DXY index and U.S. 10-year bond yields declined by -0.6% and -0.1%, respectively.  
The U.S. postponed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods for another month but began imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods (with bilateral trade reaching $668 billion and a U.S. trade deficit of $361 billion in 2024) starting February 4. This move marked the beginning of President Trump’s second-term trade war.  
In response, China immediately announced tariffs on U.S. goods, including a 15% duty on coal and LNG and a 10% duty on crude oil, agricultural equipment, and imported cars. China also tightened rare earth exports, filed complaints against the U.S. with the World Trade Organization, launched an antitrust investigation into Google, and considered similar actions against Apple. The new developments in the trade war have raised concerns and drawn attention from central banks and international organizations.  
Key economic data to watch next week includes China’s CPI, new loans, and M2 money supply; U.S. CPI, PPI, jobless claims, and retail sales; EU’s preliminary industrial production index and GDP; and the UK’s GDP.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Positive Momentum After the Holiday, Extending the Third Consecutive Week of Gains
The VN-Index maintained its pre-holiday recovery, supported by banking stocks. The index rose 0.8% with trading liquidity increasing by 13%.  
- Banking stocks continued their strong performance thanks to positive earnings results, with 7 out of the top 10 contributors to the VN-Index gains accounting for 8 out of the 10 points added to the market.  
- Market breadth expanded, with 15 out of 18 sectors declining. However, sector rotation was rapid. Industrial services, auto parts, and personal goods rose over 1.7%, while technology and retail declined by 2.6%-4.2%, mainly due to losses in a few large-cap stocks.  
- Foreign investors continued their net selling streak, offloading $166 million after selling $182 million the previous week.  
In January, key economic indicators showed positive trends: Industrial production index +0.6% YoY, retail sales & consumer services revenue +9.5% YoY, public investment capital +9.6% YoY, FDI inflows $4.3 billion (+48% YoY), budget surplus 141 trillion VND, total import-export turnover -3.5% YoY with a trade surplus of $3.03 billion, CPI +3.63% YoY, international visitors 2.1 million (+36.9% YoY).
Despite seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year holiday, January’s macroeconomic data indicated continued improvements in the manufacturing and services sectors, aligning with 2024’s trends and fostering expectations for strong growth in 2025.  
Investors are advised to consider taking profits on individual stocks that have surged significantly while maintaining a balanced portfolio to have buying opportunities when the market undergoes corrections, as the VN-Index approaches a short-term peak and overall market direction remains uncertain.