Week 08_The VN-Index is approaching the mid-term resistance level of 1,300 points

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Concerns Over the Consumer Sector Outlook and New U.S. Tariff Policy
Global stock markets reacted sensitively to consumer forecasts. Walmart shares fell by 6.5% after the company forecast only a slight sales increase for 2025 and a 2026 profit outlook that was below expectations. This decline in Walmart contributed to a drop in retail stocks and a retreat in the S&P 500 following its new weekly peak. U.S. tariff policy is also at risk of reaching a new level, as President Trump announced a 25% tariff on automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, followed by additional tariffs on imported sawn wood and logs. Meanwhile, the global economic environment remains risky and unpredictable, with precious metals prices continuing to hit new highs.
- U.S. stock indices fell by an average of 0.2%, while the EU600 was up 0.1%, the Nikkei 225 down 0.8%, and the CSI 300 up 1.0%.
- The commodity index increased by 1.7%, oil prices by 2.5%, and gas by 12.2%; precious metals maintained their upward trend (Gold +1.7%, Silver +2.3%), along with other metals (Steel +3.3%, Zinc +3.5%, Aluminum +3.5%).
- The DXY index declined by 0.01%, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose by 0.01%.
Minutes from the January FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers kept interest rates at 4.25-4.5% and revised their view—from believing inflation had “progressed” toward the 2% target to recognizing that the pace of price increases remains high. The Committee noted that while the real economy appears balanced, inflation risks remain skewed to the upside due to changes in trade policy, immigration, and robust consumer demand. Officials concurred that further reductions in inflation are necessary before considering additional rate cuts. The FedWatch tool indicates that the market does not expect a rate cut in March, with up to 80% of respondents anticipating rates to remain unchanged at the May meeting.
Key data to watch in the coming week include the German elections; CPI figures for Australia, Japan, and the EU; the UK monetary policy report; and U.S. indicators such as the consumer confidence index, new home sales revenue, durable goods orders, initial unemployment claims, and the second GDP release.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index Maintains Fifth Consecutive Gaining Week Since July 2023
VN-Index increased by 1.6%, approaching the psychological threshold of 1,300 points, along with a 23% rise in liquidity. Trading volume is showing signs of improvement as the index nears the medium-term resistance level.
- The upward momentum remained strong, supported by price stabilization efforts in large-cap stocks, despite psychological pressure from profit-taking activities in speculative stocks.
- Market breadth was dominantly positive, with 17 out of 18 sectors gaining. Some smaller sectors such as media, chemicals, and automobiles & components increased by 5.4%–6.9%, while technology was the only declining sector (-0.2%), mainly due to a 2% drop in FPT during the week.
- Foreign investors continued to reduce their net selling to $38 million from $74 million the previous week and recorded a net buying session.
The 9th extraordinary session of the 15th National Assembly concluded on February 19, with several key resolutions passed: (1) Approval of an economic growth target of at least 8%; (2) Restructuring of the National Assembly and Government personnel framework; (3) Approval of the construction of the Lao Cai – Hanoi – Hai Phong railway; (4) Approval of six special policy resolutions for major projects and key infrastructure, including the Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 nuclear power plants and urban railway projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.
This National Assembly session concretized the Party’s policies focusing on institutional reform, human resources, and infrastructure development to promote economic and social growth.
We remain cautious and are waiting for a decisive breakout above the 1,300-point resistance level to confirm a medium-term uptrend before recommending an increase in investment allocation. Therefore, we suggest considering partial profit-taking in mid- and small-cap stocks that have risen sharply and being prepared to re-enter leading stocks once the trend is confirmed.