Week 32_Candidate Donald Trump – and the Presidential Campaign (Part 2)_20240808

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Wall Street plunged in fear of an economic recession
The increase of unemployment benefits application was the most intense since 8/2003 and the ISM was lower than expected at 46.8%, raising concerns about a US economic recession. The stock market went down and the 10-year US Government stock yield dropped 4% since 2/2024.
- The US stock market decreased by average of 1.5%, EU600-1.5%, Nikkei 225 and CSI 300 at -5.2% and 0-0.6% respectively.
- Commodity index continued to decrease by -2.1%; mainly comes from natural gas - 1%, iron and lithium -4% while precious metals increased over 3%.
- DXY index -0.01% and US TP 10y -0.24% for the week.
During the July policy meeting, FED kept interest rates unchanged but gave an optimistic assessment of inflation, opening up the possibility of cutting interest rates. The FED is still cautious and has not made a specific commitment on a roadmap to cut down on interest rates. However, the market is expecting a cut of 0.25% in September with a forecast of 86.5% according to CME watch, as well as predicting two more cuts this year at the FED meeting in November and December.
PMI China, EU, US; Interest rates and monetary policy report Central Bank of Australia; US unemployment benefit applications and CPI China and the US declaring Vietnam is a market economy are notable news next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index reversed notably in the ETF portfolio restructuring session at the end of the week
Through recovering from the 1200 points zone, VN-Index has narrowed down the weekly decrease to only 0.4%, liquidity increased by 7% compared to last week.
The market in the region fluctuated strongly with strong increasing and decreasing sessions. Liquidity remained below the 20-session average.
- 5/18 industries decreased, the decrease was quite large in the group of mid and smallcap stocks. The banking and food and beverage sectors increased by over 1% while 6 mid-cap sectors decreased by over 3%.
- Foreign investors sold nearly 15 million USD, equivalent to last week's net sale.
Macroeconomic remains stable and growth drivers also maintained. Net profit after tax of the entire market in the second quarter increased by 27% yoy, supporting the market to soon stabilize after the adjustment period. Investors continue to consider increasing their stock holdings during the shaky sessions next week as the market valuation is gradually returning to a reasonable level for medium-term investment activities.
Industrial production index in July and in 7 months increased by 11.2%yoy and 8.5yoy. 7-month budget investment capital equals 40.6% of projected and increases 2.3%yoy. Registered and disbursed FDI increased by 10.9% and 8.4%yoy, respectively. The seven-month budget surplus reached 240 trillion. Total retail sales of goods and consumer goods increased by 8.7%yoy in 7 months. Exports increased by 15.7%yoy and trade surplus was 14.08 billion. Average CPI in 7 months increased by 4.12%yoy. There were nearly 10 million visitors to the country, up 51%yoy. PMI reached 54.7, unchanged compared to June. The macroeconomy continues to remain stable, the consumption and export production sectors maintain positive momentum to support growth in 2024.