FTSE Vietnam Index and Marketvector Vietnam Local Index portfolio forecast

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
U.S. Stock Market had a sharp decline as the time for imposing tariffs draws near 
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, effective from March 4, and a possible 10% additional tariff on Chinese goods, triggering concerns over narrowing corporate growth and rising instability. Investors have shifted from a momentum trading strategy—which had underpinned the explosion in technology, communications, and non-essential consumer sectors in 2023 and 2024—to sectors such as healthcare and essential consumer goods. This shift has also spurred selling in sectors that had risen sharply, while investors have become more cautious ahead of economic data releases.
- U.S. stock indices declined on average -2.3%, EU600 -0.2%, Nikkei 225 -4.1%; CSI 300 -2.2%.
- The commodity index fell sharply -3.3%, with oil prices -1%, gas -4.7%; precious metals also reversed (Gold -2.5%, Silver -4.1%) and other metals (Steel -4.9%, Zinc -4.9%); agricultural prices (Coffee -4.4%, Sugar -7.7%).
- The DXY index increased +0.7% and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell -0.19%.
China's central bank, the PBoC, is expected to inject USD 55 billion into several major banks in March. This is part of the comprehensive economic recovery stimulus package announced in September 2024, aimed at reviving the real estate sector and curbing the risk of deflation and rising unemployment. To date, the PBoC has supported banks with USD 141 billion. After implementing supportive measures such as reducing mortgage rates and key interest rates—which have led to record-low profit margins and an increase in non-performing loans among banks—the PBoC has continued to provide liquidity support to state-owned banks.
PMI for Canada, the UK, Japan, China, the EU, and the U.S.; EU CPI; minutes of Australia's monetary policy, U.S. interest rates, and the EU monetary policy report; U.S. initial jobless claims, non-farm payroll changes, and the unemployment rate; and Vietnamese macroeconomic data for February are key items in the coming week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index extends its sixth consecutive week of gains
VN-Index rose 0.7%, surpassing the psychological and medium-term resistance level at 1,300 points. Trading volume increased by 13% over 6 weeks without sudden spikes.
- Large-cap stocks like HPG, GVR, and VHM now support the market, replacing the Banking group. Profit-taking appeared in some hot stocks, yet stock rotation remains steady.
- Advancing breadth narrowed to 12 of 18 sectors. Steel, securities, and consumer stocks alternated gains, boosting resources, financial services, and retail by 2%–6.6%. Meanwhile, Communications, healthcare, and IT fell by 1%–3.4%.
- Foreign investors increased net selling to USD 98 million, up from USD 38 million last week.
 Immediately after meetings with state-owned enterprises and major private corporations, the Government also organized a conference with small and medium-sized enterprises last week. The Prime Minister emphasized a growth target of at least 8% to create a two-digit growth momentum in the coming years. The Government will establish a new resolution for SMEs. The meeting also discussed the bottlenecks and constraints that need to be resolved for these enterprises. The early-year conferences indicate that the Government is decisively unblocking and mobilizing social resources to focus on economic development. With a growth target above 8%, the Ministry of Finance is also committed to controlling CPI at 4.15% to create momentum for the highest economic growth.
The stock market is showing positive momentum, maintaining stability above the 1,300-point resistance level. VN-Index needs an additional gap-up session to break well above this psychological threshold to confirm a medium-term uptrend and attract additional new inflows. We continue to maintain the view of considering a reduction in the weight of mid- and small-cap stocks that have risen sharply, while being ready to re-enter leading stocks once the upward trend is consolidated.