Week 11_Forecast of FTSE Vietnam 30 Index and Foreign ETF Share Trading Volume in Q1/2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
US Stock Market continues to decline, extending 3-week losing streak 
US stock indices continued to decline, with an average drop of 3.3%. Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on alcoholic products from the EU in retaliation for the bloc's 50% tariff on whiskey imported from the US. The tariff policy shook the markets, putting pressure on business and consumer confidence, and overshadowing positive information about the CPI announced earlier. Along with the negative stock market trend, investors also sought safe havens like gold, pushing the price of gold closer to the $3,000/ounce mark.
- US stock indices dropped by an average of -3.3%, EU600 -1.9%, Nikkei 225 +0.8%; CSI 300 +1.5%.
- The commodity index rose +0.7%, with precious metals continuing to rise (Gold +2.9%, Silver +4.3%) and base metals (Copper +4.6%, Lead +3.0%, Tin +13%); agricultural products (Wheat +5.3%, Rice +4.3%).
- The DXY index rose +0.2%, and the US 10-year Treasury yield fell by -0.05%.
US February CPI rose 0.2% MoM and 2.8% YoY, lower than the forecast by 0.1%. Core CPI increased 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY, both below expectations. Housing costs rose 0.3%, but weaker than in January, and accounted for one-third of the CPI weight. The CPI report is showing improvement in inflation as the rate of increase slowed compared to January. This is a positive signal in the context of increasingly tense tariff developments, with the latest being the US imposing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum on March 12, followed by the EU proposing to impose tariffs of up to 28 billion USD expected by mid-April and 20 billion USD on US goods from Canada on March 13. The market expects the FED to maintain the interest rate at 4.25 - 4.5% at the upcoming meeting next week.
The industrial production index, retail sales, unemployment rate in China; CPI, retail sales in Canada; Retail sales, weekly jobless claims, and existing home sales in the US; Interest rates and monetary policy minutes from the BOE, BOJ, and FED are the key information to watch for next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
Maintaining the upward trend, VN-Index marks the 8th consecutive week of gains
The VN-Index rose slightly by 0.01% in the 8th consecutive week, with trading volume showing a slight improvement. The rotation of large-cap stocks maintained the momentum, and strong buying demand at lower price levels provided the driving force to keep the VN-Index's upward trajectory, thereby reinforcing the medium- and long-term upward trend.
- The trio of stocks VIC, VCB, and VHM contributed 14 points to the VN-Index, offsetting the declines of FPT and some other bank stocks.
- The breadth of the market continued to narrow, with only 8 out of 18 sectors showing gains. Real estate, telecommunications, and industrial goods sectors increased by 2-8%, while basic resources and oil & gas sectors declined by over 3%. The rotation of stocks is showing signs of slowing, despite liquidity remaining at a relatively high level.
- Foreign investors net sold 65 million USD, compared to a net sale of 28 million USD the previous week.
The government plans to propose a plan to reduce 50% of provincial-level administrative units and 60-70% of grassroots-level administrative units compared to the current structure, based on the development of a two-level local government model. The streamlining of the state apparatus is one of the key topics in the upcoming National Assembly session, where it is expected that the National Assembly will decide to eliminate the district level and merge provinces based on the government’s proposal after amending the Constitution. The merger will involve 60-70% of the total 10,500+ commune-level units under the authority of the National Assembly Standing Committee. The National Assembly meeting will begin in early May and will last nearly two months, with plans to pass 11 laws, discuss 16 laws, and amend the Constitution.
The market still needs additional periods of fluctuations to reduce profit-taking pressure from stocks with low acquisition prices that have been accumulated over the past two months, through a rotation of expectations among investor layers. This will help sustain the market’s upward trend more sustainably. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook and believe that these correction periods present opportunities for investors to continue increasing their investment allocations.