Week12_Vaneck ETF officially adds NAB; Forecast of stock constituents in the VN-Diamond and VN-FinSelect indices for Q2/2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
U.S. equities underperform compared to other major markets
U.S. stock indices saw a mild rebound after three consecutive weeks of losses. Messaging from the Fed helped reassure investors amid heightened uncertainty surrounding trade policies under the Trump administration. Fund managers appear to be shifting allocations toward European equities, with 39% increasing exposure to the region, driven by Germany’s fiscal stimulus and the EU’s rising defense spending. This marks the largest capital rotation from U.S. to European equities since 1999, according to a Bank of America survey. Ongoing global uncertainties continued to drive gold prices to new highs.
- U.S. stock indices rose by an average of +0.3%, EU600 +0.7%, Nikkei 225 +1.3%; CSI 300 fell -2.3%.
- Commodity index rose +0.9%, led by gains in precious metals (Gold +2.0%) and base metals (Copper +4.5%, Tin +4.7%); energy (Crude oil +2.1%).
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) edged up +0.15%, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields dropped -0.07%.
In its March meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5% and projected two rate cuts in 2025. The Fed downgraded its growth forecast from 0.4% to 1.7% and raised its core inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8%. The updated dot plot revealed a more cautious stance, with four members now expecting no rate cuts—up from three in the December meeting. The Fed also signaled a slowdown in quantitative tightening, reducing the pace of maturing Treasury roll-offs from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities. The central bank emphasized prevailing uncertainty, noting increased ambiguity in the economic outlook and risks to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
PMI releases for the UK, EU, and U.S.; U.S. existing home sales, consumer confidence index, initial jobless claims, and final Q4 GDP; CPI data from Australia, the UK, and Japan.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index pulls back after 8-week rally
The VN-Index declined 0.3% with trading liquidity falling 10% compared to the previous week. Portfolio rebalancing by ETFs, futures contract expirations, and strong net selling from foreign investors collectively pressured the market, preventing the index from sustaining its upward momentum after testing short-term resistance levels. However, bottom-fishing demand at lower price levels remained resilient, helping the index stay above key support and keeping the short-term uptrend intact.
- Leading large-cap stocks saw corrections, while several laggards such as GVR, SHB, and HVN—which had previously underperformed—posted positive movements. ETF-driven rebalancing also contributed to a mixed performance among blue chips.  
- Market breadth improved, with 10 out of 18 sectors posting gains. However, the gainers were mainly mid-sized sectors such as Chemicals, Oil & Gas, and Healthcare, each rising more than 1.3%, while Information Technology, Retail, and Food & Beverage declined over 2%.  
- Foreign investors sharply increased net selling to USD 153 million, up from USD 65 million in the prior week.
The importance of the private sector was once again emphasized in a recent national address by the country’s top leader. A consistent message reaffirmed that all individuals have the right to freely engage in business activities not prohibited by law, while encouraging enterprises to invest boldly and embrace innovation. The Politburo is expected to issue a resolution aimed at supporting the private sector, with key highlights including:  
- Participation in strategic economic sectors  
- Freedom to conduct business  
- Promotion of digital transformation and new technologies  
- Administrative reforms focused on service delivery  
- Maximizing resource mobilization for private-sector growth  
This resolution is envisioned as a launchpad to elevate the private sector’s contribution to GDP from 51% currently to 70% by 2030.
The market's pullback follows a strong upward streak, yet healthy buying interest at lower price levels supports stability. We maintain a constructive medium-term view and see short-term corrections as opportunities for investors to gradually increase equity exposure.