Week 15_Progress of the 2025 tariff conflict as of April 11, 2025

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Markets Swing Like a Roller Coaster Amid President Trump's Tariff Decisions
Markets experienced sharp fluctuations following U.S. President Trump's tariff decisions. Initial turmoil arose as Trump imposed additional tariffs on several countries, followed by a strong rally after his unexpected decision on April 9th to delay the new tariffs by 90 days. However, markets declined again on April 10th after the U.S. announced a steep 145% tariff on Chinese goods. Tariff policy volatility impacted currency, commodity, and bond markets, while gold prices surged to new records.
- U.S. equity indices rose by an average of +3% over the five trading sessions ending April 10th, whereas EURO STOXX 600 fell -6.8%, Nikkei 225 dropped -2.3%, and CSI 300 declined -3.6%.
- The commodity index lost -5.9%, with widespread declines across major groups: Energy (crude oil and coal -3.4%, natural gas -8.2%), Metals (aluminum -3.5%, iron ore -4.0%, lead -21%), Agricultural commodities (rubber -7%, coffee -6%, sugar -4%). In contrast, precious metals surged, with gold +5.8% and silver +5.9%.
- The DXY index fell -1.3%, dropping below the 100-point threshold, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields jumped +0.46%, reaching 4.4%.
The U.S.'s new tariff policy remained a key driver of international market volatility throughout the week. Following the scheduled reciprocal tariff hike announced on April 9th, President Trump declared a 90-day suspension for further negotiations. Currently active tariffs include a 10% duty on general imports and 25% on aluminum, automobiles, and goods from Canada and Mexico not covered under USMCA. The U.S.-China tariff conflict escalated to a new level as the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting a 125% retaliatory tariff from China. While the U.S. moves to negotiate with various countries, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war is expected to introduce greater uncertainty and instability to the global economy and financial markets in the near term.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy minutes; interest rate decisions and monetary policy reports from the Bank of Canada and the ECB; CPI releases in the UK and the EU; along with U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims, will be the key data points to watch in the coming week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index Narrows Losses Amid Tariff Suspension Rally
Following a sharp sell-off in previous sessions, the VN-Index reversed course and managed to retain a 1% gain over the past week, driven by a strong rebound after the announcement of a temporary suspension of retaliatory tariffs. Liquidity surged by 60% compared to the previous week as bottom-fishing activity intensified. Market sentiment shifted from panic to fear of missing out (FOMO), and foreign investors began turning net buyers in response to the recovery momentum..
- The index has retraced 57% of its losses from the recent bottom, with VIC and VHM contributing 9.3 points to the upside, while GVR and BCM (key industrial zone-related stocks) dragged the index by 3 points.
- Bottom-fishing strengthened as valuation metrics dropped to historically low levels, with the market’s P/E ratio falling to 11x and P/B ratio to 1.4x.
- Foreign investors reduced their net selling significantly from USD 340 million to USD 84 million, and even recorded net buying sessions during the recovery trend.
The 11th Plenum of the 13th Central Committee concluded on April 12 after three days of discussion, covering 15 key topics. Two major focuses were: (1) The restructuring of administrative and local government systems at two levels; and (2) Preparation for the 14th National Party Congress, including elections for the National Assembly and local People’s Councils.The restructuring process is a crucial step toward institutional reform and socio-economic development. It includes drafting a proposal to consolidate provincial-level administrative units from 63 to 34 provinces, expected to be submitted to the National Assembly by May 1st, and a plan to reduce the number of communes and wards from 10,053 to about 5,000 by May 30th, in preparation for the 2026–2031 leadership term. This is one of the key initiatives aimed at streamlining the political system, enhancing efficiency, and creating additional room for socio-economic development.
Given the rapidly evolving and complex market conditions, investors are advised to prioritize risk management, consider partial profit-taking during the rebound, and increase cash holdings to navigate potential short-term volatility.