Week 16_Forecast of the number of shares to be bought/sold by ETFs tracking the VN30 Index

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
European equities surged on deferred tariffs and ECB’s monetary easing policies.
Meanwhile, markets expressed concern that Prime Minister Trump’s policy stance could fuel inflationary pressures, creating challenges for the Fed—as noted in remarks by Chairman Powell. U.S. equity indices weakened after a week of recovery, while European markets rallied on deferred tariff threats, interest rate cuts, and expectations of fiscal stimulus. Gold continued its impressive upward streak, setting consecutive new records, while the DXY Index remained under downward pressure.
- U.S. equity indices declined by an average of 2% over the five trading sessions ending April 18; EU600 rose +4.0%, Nikkei 225 +3.4%, and CSI 300 +0.8%.
- The commodity index increased by 1.3%, with notable gains in energy (Crude oil +7.7%), base metals (Lead +3.3%, Nickel +7.3%), and precious metals (Gold +4.3%, Silver +4.2%).
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell another 0.7%, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields eased to 4.33%.
China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4%, reflecting solid economic momentum amid global uncertainties driven by new U.S. tariff policies. Growth was supported by a 4.6% YoY rise in retail sales and a 6.5% YoY increase in industrial production. Following trade probes into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, the U.S. Department of Commerce launched a new investigation into critical minerals—signaling the continued escalation of the trade war, despite a temporary 90-day suspension of retaliatory tariffs to allow for negotiations. This situation places the Federal Reserve in a policy dilemma, as Chairman Powell warned of “higher inflation, lower growth, and an unclear policy path.” The policy divergence has widened, with the ECB cutting its key rate for the 7th time, down to 2.25% last week.
China 1-year and 5-year interest rates; IMF meeting for 7 days from April 21-27; PMI of Australia, UK, Japan, EU, US; Retail sales of Canada, UK; Sales of used homes, unemployment claims of US; focus of AGM season of listed companies are the information to pay attention to next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index Moves Sideways Amid Sector Rotation in Large-Cap Stocks
The VN-Index shifted into a sideways trading pattern, edging down 0.2% with average daily trading value declining by 21% compared to the previous week. The market entered a state of equilibrium, awaiting supportive catalysts, leading to divergent trading activities driven by Q1 earnings results disclosed during the AGM season of listed firms.
- The GEX-related stocks posted strong gains, while VIC-affiliated stocks initially supported the index early in the week but reversed and declined by the end of the week. This shift transferred index leadership to the banking sector.
- Market breadth was neutral, with 50% of stocks on the HoSE advancing. Although there was no clear sector leadership, a few groups of stocks posted notable gains of over 10%.
- Foreign investors significantly increased their net selling activity, from USD 84 million to USD 188 million, with VIC being the primary target of these outflows.
In terms of policy developments, the government signed a decision to approve the revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8). The plan aims to meet power demand in line with a targeted 10% annual GDP growth during 2026–2030, raising commercial electricity output to over 500 billion kWh and striving for 50% of office buildings and 50% of households to install rooftop solar by 2030. The plan prioritizes renewable energy sources—particularly wind and solar—and schedules the operation of Ninh Thuan 1 & 2 nuclear power plants (capacity: 4,000–6,400 MW) between 2030 and 2035. While coal power projects will continue as planned through 2030, they will gradually shift toward biomass and prioritize natural gas for electricity generation. PDP8 reinforces the strategic transition toward clean, renewable, and environmentally friendly energy.
Given the current sensitive phase of the market, where short-term trends remain unclear, investors are advised to prioritize risk management and maintain a balanced portfolio allocation to navigate potential near-term volatility.