Week 33_Global monetary policy update as of August 2024_20240813

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
The stock market fluctuates strongly due to macro environment, leading to a shift in cash flow
After the wobbly session before the July employment report, the markets have gradually stabilized with mixed increases and decreases. The recovery of Japanese yen with the message that the BOJ has not yet increased interest rates also partly helped stabilize the market after being the main culprit for the sharp decline on August 5.
- The US stock market decreased on average -0.3%, EU600 -0.3%, Nikkei 225 and CSI 300 strongly -1.6% and -1.5% respectively.
- Commodity index increased by 0.2%; mainly coming from oil +4%, gas +9%, while metals all decreased from 0.8% - 4%.
- DXY Index -0.03% and US 10y treasury bond increased again 0.17% after falling significantly in the middle of the week.
Now that the July jobs report was far below expectation, many people are being concerned that there might be an economic recession soon in the US. This leads to a sell-off in the markets. The unemployment benefit application report on August 8 was quite positive, allaying investors' concerns. However, the unemployment rate in July increased by 4.3%, which is considered an early indicator of recession according to the Sahm rule, so investors continue to bet that the FED will start reducing interest rates in September.
M2 money supply and new Chinese loans; CPI UK, US; Retail Sales, US Unemployment Claims; FOMC members' speeches are the focus information next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index recovered from the low price range, in agreement with the movements of the international market
Rising from the low price range after the sell-off at the beginning of the week, VN-Index surpassed 1,200 points, narrowing the weekly decrease to only 1%, with liquidity equivalent to last week.
- The market moves relatively to fluctuations in the international market. Stocks that dropped sharply during the sell-off session recovered positively, but the divergence still remained clear.
- 6/18 industries increased, of which Oil and Gas, Utilities and food & beverages increased by over 1%, on the contrary, primary resources, construction and materials, Automobiles and spare parts decreased by over 3%.
- Foreign selling increased sharply in net selling value to 150 million compared to 15 million USD last week.
After a sharp decline, the market has returned to balance and is being supported by a reasonable price level thanks to the improvement of QII business results. After last week's recommendation to buy at low prices, we believe that investors need to continue to observe, avoid chasing and only buy during down sessions when the international market is still highly volatile and unpredictable.
Credit growth until July 2024 increased by 14.99% yoy and 5.66% ytd, lower than the 6% recorded at the end of June. The average 6-month lending interest rate is at 8.3%, down 0.96% compared to the end of the year while the average deposit interest rate is at 3.59%, down 1.08% compared to the end of 2023. By the end of July 31, the central exchange rate increased 1.63% compared to the end of 2023, stable compared to the region and the world. The State Bank operates flexibly, harmoniously, and balances interest rates as well as exchange rates to support macroeconomic stability and aim for 15% credit growth.