BSC_Market Strategy Report 2014 - 2015

ECONOMY FORECAST IN 2015
•    We forecast Vietnam's economy in 2015 will continue to achieve higher growth rates, at about 6% - 6.2%; low inflation (less than 5% - 6%); moderate credit growth (13% - 15%); and stable interest rate and exchange rate.
•    The FTAs will have a positive impact on Vietnam economy, while input prices tend to reduce following the world oil prices will benefit many manufacturing industries. The budget deficit will be offset by the recovery of domestic sectors; and the the credit rating of Vietnam will increase facilitating the international bond issuance.
OPPORTUNITES FOR VIETNAM MARKET IN 2015
•    We expect that VN-Index may reach 600 pts in year 2015 (Average Scenario), and in the case of positive information is strong enough to support the market, VN-Index will approach 650 pts in a positive scenario.
•    In our opinion, markets will perform positively in first 6 months. Market will be influenced mainly by much information such as:  Circular 36 takes effect on 1st Feb 2015, ETFs trading activities, 2014 business results and ability of raising US interest rates in 2015.
•    The stock market may be challenged in the last 6 months of 2015. The market trend in last 6 months will depend mostly on whether the expected policies occur or not, and on the economic - politics trends in the world. Information to open the room for foreign investors, has signed bilateral agreements and multilateral, as well as clearer picture of changes in macroeconomic trends will determine the rest of the year.
NOTABLE RISKS IN 2015
•    The policy risk of Circular 36: This Circular proposes the provisions relating directly to the ownership, equity investments and will impact strongly on the stock market.
•    Many large enterprises IPO and list publicly: Currently, up to November 2014, only 115 enterprises were equitized in comparison with 432 enterprises in 2014 – 2015 government plans. We expect this is positive news in the long term; however, the enterprises equitization will affect the capital flowing into the market from the second half of 2015.