20161103_BSC_Vietnam Monthly Review_EN_2016M10

Macro Economy

• PMI in October stood at 51.7, slightly down from 5.29 in September. Output was stable slightly affecting PMI though other components grew. IIP in October increased slower than in September because mining industry was still being in struggle, down 11.3% YoY

• CPI rose by 0.83% MoM, highest rise since beginning of the year due to higher price of health care and fuel. Ending October, CPI rose by 4.09% YoY, close to the 5% target planned from beginning of the year

• Central exchange rate kept rising from beginning October, currently being at the highest level of the year. 10-month trade balance is estimated at USD 3.52 billion, positive FDI disbursement, exchange rate rose because of FOMC and presidential election in November

• 10-month credit growth is at 11.81% YtD. Interbank rate declined to recored level in mid October, rebounded slightly at month end

Stock markets

• 2 indices moved sideways and showed tendency of declining in month-end trading sessions. Ending October, VN-Index closed at 675.8 (-1.45% MoM) while HNX-Index closed at 82.25 (-3.24% MoM).

• Foreign Investors executed net buy on both floors, specifically, net buy of USD 3.18 million on HSX, USD 1.79 million on HNX

• PE of VN-Index and HNX-Index stood at 15.92 and 10.67, respectively, kept the same positions in regional ranking compared to previous month

Next month market outlook

• VN-Index is expected to correct and go sideways above 670 in the first 2 weeks of November. Index trend will be clearer after American presidential election on 8/11