Week 36_Struggling before the holiday, VN-Index consolidated the accumulation area around 1,285 points_20240906

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
Dow Jones hits new record as other indexes falter on tech weakness
US economic data remained positive, easing recession fears, with jobless claims falling from the previous week and second-quarter GDP revised up from 2.8% to 3%. However, the stock market's rally stalled amid strong profit-taking pressure in tech stocks.
- US stocks fell 0.6% on average, EU600 +1.6%, Nikkei 225 +1.2% and CSI 300 -0.04%.
- Commodity index rose 0.9%; mainly due to oil +1.9%, steel +4% and sugar +8%.
- DXY +0.7% and US TP 10y slightly increased +0.06%.
New home prices in 70 Chinese cities continued to fall 4.9% yoy in July, after falling 4.5% yoy in June. Home prices in China have been falling for 13 consecutive months despite stimulus measures such as mortgage rate cuts and deposit reductions. The downturn in China's real estate market has also dragged down iron ore and copper prices (the two most consumed commodities in China). Iron ore prices have hit a 20-month low while copper prices have also fallen 17% in the past 3 months.
UK, Canada, EU and US PMIs; Bank of Canada interest rates and monetary reports; US non-farm payroll changes and jobless claims; Canada and US unemployment rates are the news to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index consolidates accumulation zone around 1,285 points before the holiday
VN-Index slightly decreased by 0.1% to end 2 weeks of gains with liquidity down 9% compared to the previous week. The divergence of large stocks and cautious sentiment before the holiday caused the market to trade divergently throughout the trading week.
- Information that SBV granted additional credit limits to banks that had completed 80% of the credit limit led to divergence among banks. The banking sector is no longer the driving force supporting the market like 2 weeks ago.
- The market had 6/18 sectors increase points. The real estate sector increased by 2% while personal goods, communications and industrial goods and services decreased by over 2%.
- Foreign investors net sold 32 million USD, slightly increased compared to the net selling of 25 million USD last week.
Before the VN-Index forms a clear trend, investors can accelerate trading activities, consider taking partial profits and buying back during volatile sessions. SBV had the strongest net injection session on August 27 since July through open market operations. Previously, SBV also stopped offering treasury bills and switched to net injection into the system. Overnight bank interest rates have reached 4.67% and the yield curve has almost flattened, reflecting the shortage of short-term payments. This phenomenon often occurs before the holidays, coinciding with the end of the month and quarter when payment demand increases. Along with that, the USD price at commercial banks continued to fall below 25,000 VND/USD and the market has grounds to believe that SBV will increase USD purchases to offset the selling volume as well as support liquidity for the system.