20180212_BSC_Vietnam Sector Review_2017_EN

In order to revise the BSC's performance in the Sector Outlook Report of 2017, we considered these following factors:
• In terms of indexes.  For the first point, BSC forecasts quite close to the VN-Index in 2017 in Q1 and Q2 but the difference is quite large when the market was much better than the assumption of approximately 50%, which is in the group of Fastest stock market growth in 2018 and returning to the peak of ten years since 2007.
• Market movements. Secondly, forecasts of market movements in June-August were quite close to Forecast for the third quarter of BSC. Thus, in the third quarter, market index fluctuated in 740-800 area and conquered new heights thanks to the large cap stocks in the fourth quarter as forecast. However, the market has received good signal which are beyond expectations to help VN-Index approaching nearly 1000 points such as foreigners were net buyers as well as successful billion USD divestment of goverment (VNM, SAB).
• Group of stocks. Third, in terms of stocks, in the fourth quarter prospect report, BSC predicted that Bluechips and Banking, Real estate, Consumption and Manufacturing sectors would strongly increase and lead the market. The market has occurred under the scenario as the prediction, but we have not mentioned the Oil and gas sector when it was positive with the oil price surpass the old peak in 2016. In the second half of the year, information of divestment from SCIC and large amount of cash released from foreign net buying on the exchange such as HPG, VNM, SAB were leading the market.
• Comments on information affecting the VN Index and the stock market in 2017. Factors that we believe will have an impact on the market and business have taken place as predicted are: (1) the world market movements, information from the Fed meeting (especially the session IV), (2) domestic macroeconomic forecasts such as positive interest rates and cash flow from foreign investors and (3) state capital divestments will release large amounts of cash in the market from the funds and (4) the market will depend on the effect of Resolution 42 on dealing with bad debt that gives confidence to the Banking sector expressed by the rising stock price. In addition, we have 3 reports to assess the Banking sector (1) Raise investment views from the neutral to positive, (2) Resolution dealing with bad debt and (3) Assessing the SBV's impact on lowering interest rates shows a positive outlook.

 

Performance of portfolio
• Average growth of BSC recommended stocks in 2017 was 30%, and 30.42% for the recommended stocks from Reported by the beginning of 2017, which is fairly high but still lower than the growth of VN-Index (48%).
• In our recommendation list, 57/76 stocks gained with an average of 47.23% (equivalent to Vnindex). Even in the same sector, the division of stock price movements is quite large. This shows that although the year 2017 is a strong growth year, if our choices were wrong, profit in the year would be significantly less than the general index.
• DXG was the strongest leader (+114.9%), Banking stock also reach the high level of growth rate with MBB (+102.2%), ACB (+94.2%), Technology sector also increased significantly in 2017 with CMG up 93.3% and FPT increased 52.6%. In addition, some stocks were affected by the poor performance of the sector and the stock price was down such as BCC decreased 42.90%, HT1 -18.7%, BMP -16.6%.