Macro 2018M3_The journey conquering 11-year peak_20180402

Macroeconomics
GDP in Q1/2018 rise 7.38% yoy, highest in the last 10 years. Industrial and construction sector posted the strongest growth with 9.7% yoy
PMI in March dropped to 51.6 points, due to weaker growth indicators in manufacturing sector, especially in terms of output.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in March 2018 were estimated at VND 343.8 trillion, down 2% from the previous month and up 9.3% yoy
Total registered FDI in Q1/2018 reached USD 3,911.5 million (down 43% over the same period in 2017). Distribution of electricity, gas, hot water and air conditioning and manufacturing are still the two leading industries in attracting FDI
The interbank rate in March slightly increased and fluctuated between VND 22,690-23,104 VND/USD. The interbank rate tended to decrease, and the increase in SBV net withdrawal in Q1 showed that the liquidity of the financial system is robust

Stock market
VN-Index and HNX-Index gained 4.72% and 9.6% respectively in March. Compared to the beginning of the year, VN-Index and HNX-Index gained 178.7 points and 13.6 points respectively, corresponding to 18% ytd and 11.4% ytd
The average trading value on both exchanges increased by 4.62% compared to February 2018, and remained at 8,281 billion VND/session equivalent to 363.74 million USD/session. The average trading value in Q1/2018 reached 8,612 billion VND/ session, up 41.5% compared to Q4/2017
Foreigners were net sellers on both HSX and HNX with VND -639.9 billion and VND -94 billion respectively
P/E of VN-Index and HNX-Index reached 21 and 14.6 respectively, equivalent to 3.94% Mom and 6.42 MoM, 16.8% ytd and 14.6% ytd. P/E of HNX-Index up-ranked to 14th, P/E of VN-Index remained at 5th in the region

Market outlook
In April, The market has good chance for growth thanks to the first quarter results, which may trigger a correction in May as the market enters the lack of information period and recovers in the second half of June. Case 1 is appreciated in the following 2 cases:
In positive case, after some consolidation sessions at 1,170 points, VN-Index continued to gained, moving far away this threshold with the support of banking, finance and real estate stocks
In negative case, VN-Index surpassed the peak after 11 years but cannot keep the high price level and correct to 1,130 points. Index will accumulate in the range of 1,130-1,170 points. Negative impact from the global market is the factor affecting market sentiment and cash flow into the market

Stock recommendation:
Industry sector and stocks were positively evaluated in the Industry Outlook 2018  (Link) and (Link)
Banking and financial stocks have improved dramatically and benefited from the Law on supporting restructuring of Credit Institutions and NPLs
Real estate and construction stocks benefited from the recovery of economy
Leading stocks in the retail sector have high growth and dividend yields.
Buying small portion of Small and medium stocks with good business results and positive outlook as VN-Index accumulating and widespread cash flow.