Macro & Market April 2019__Rebound from consolidate area_20190508

Macroeconomics
• PMI index increased from 51.7 to 52.5 in April, which is lower than the 2018 average of 53.7 points.
• Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 4 months were estimated at VND 793.8 trillion, an increase of 12.2% compared to the same period last year.
• In 4 months, registered FDI increased by 50.4% YoY while disbursed FDI increased by 7.5% compared to last year. FDI capital mainly focuses on processing and manufacturing industries.
• The interbank USD exchange rate fluctuated in the range of 23,240 - 23,265 USD/VND, a slight increase compared to the range of 23,200– 23,255 USD/VND in March. Interbank interest rates increased slightly in the first 2 weeks of the month and plummeted in the last 2 weeks of the month.

Stock Market
•HSX corrected slightly and HNX recovered slightly. VN-Index officially decreased by 1.1 points compared to the end of last month (-0.11% MoM ), (+ 9.76% YtD) and HNX-Index increased 0.02 points (+ 0.02% MoM), (+ 3.10% YtD).
• The average liquidity on 2 exchanges decreased by 27.3% compared to March 2019, and declined to VND 3,907 billion / session and equivalent to nearly USD 168.4 million / session.
• In April, foreign investors continued to be net buyers on the HSX and HNX.
• P/E of VN-Index dropped to 16.51, -0.03% MoM, + 9.99% YtD and HNX-Index fell slightly to 8.30, equivalent to -0.13% MoM, -4.61% YtD. The P/E of HSX dropped slightly and ended the three-month consecutive increase, HNX also had a slight decrease. Compared to March 2019, the P/E of the VN-Index dropped to the 9th position and the HNX-Index continued to hold the 19th position in Asia.

Market outlook in May
The effect from Q1 business results will no longer affect market. instead, new cash flow as well as supportive information will affect the market in May. With the expectation that the US-China and Vietnam Trade Agreement can welcome new ETF cash flow, it is expected to help the market gain clearly in the second half of May. VN-Index will move 950 points - 1,000 points in May. In May, BSC offers two scenarios as follows:
• In case of positive, VN-Index kept above 965 points and will test 1,000 points. Liquidity remained stable.
• In case of negative, VN-Index may drop below 950 points if there are unfavorable information from the world.

Recommended stocks:
• Industry and stocks are evaluated positively in the Industry Prospects Report 2019 and Quarter II Industry Outlook;
• Stocks of Ports and Textiles benefiting from trade agreements and shifting production from trade war;
• Stocks benefited from recovering materials prices and oil prices;
• High defensive stocks such as Electricity, Information Technology - Post, Retail consumption have high growth and dividends;
• In the long term, BSC's recommended stocks will be mentioned in the IV quarter sector strategic reports, the stocks with good changes are recommended in the Weekly Investment Report and Industries / companies update report.