Week 25__ Consolidate trading, waiting for news_PTKT_VCB, PNJ, CTD, SCR, VEA_20190628

Next week stratergy                               
VN-Index is continuing to accumulate at the short-term bottom of 940 - 965 points, rebound trend could be confirmed when short-term resistance of 965 points is overcome together with improved liquidity. VN-Index moves in the opposite direction with the regional markets. The downside session in 27/06 could possibly be the result of active futures arbitrage transaction as well as reversal of margin at the end of a quarter. The market is widely diverging in the Bluechips stocks as VIC and VHM increases in points while GAS and banking stocks move against the index. Sectors are also diverging with 8/18 sectors increase their points. News of US and China leaders reinitiating trade talks and the results of such meeting will likely affect the market in the coming week.   Moreover, information of business operation and income statement of the second quarter will be supporting the market in the short-term especially when clear direction is not present. 

World markets are operating in the waits for new, oil prices strongly rebound. Stock markets in the world are moving sideway while the regional stock markets slightly uptrend as foreign investors are buying. The money market remains stable as the commodities market see an increase of +1.9%. Oil prices continue to rise right before the G20 summit and OPEC meeting. Furthermore, argricultural products are on the increase such as Sugar +3.1%, Wheat +3.6%, Cafe +8.7%; metal commodities are also rising such as gold +1.5% and iron ore +3.4%. Markets are likely to fluctuate in the weekend and next week sessions as important information regarding the G20 and OPEC meeting are coming.

Interest rate level fluctuated significantly after many weeks of stability. The SBV reduced the size of issuing bills while increasing the value of repo transactions. Interest rates increased sharply by 99, 86, 68 and 30 points respectively in the overnight, 1 week, 1 month and 3 month terms. Last week, the SBV issued 32,999 billion 7-day bills with 3% interest rate, down by 51% compared to the previous week while having 12,000 billion repo for 7-day term with 4.75% interest rate implemented at the end of the month. This volatility is showing that the liquidity in the market has shown signs of less abundance after the issuance of 8 consecutive weeks of SBV bills. However, important transactions were recorded at the end of the second quarter. Therefore, interest rate fluctuations may not only come from actual demand but also from the demand for reserve payment of banks at the end of the quarter.

Arbitrage transaction increases liquidity and narrows the positive price difference with VN30. In the 17/06 trading session, the premium of 2% over VN30 greatly assisted arbitrage transactions. Premium on futures when compared to VN30 decreased to 0.4%, 0.6%, 1.1%, and 1.2% respectively for each period. Average transaction value reached 8,721 billion per session, an increase of 23% from last week. Open contract decreased by 7% to end up at 21,718 contracts.VN30 could not overcome the resistance of 873 points and returned to test the bottom of 845 points, which leads to futures falling by a larger percentage than VN30 and filling the premium  gap like last week outlook. The narrowed premium does not provide an obvious advantage. Monitor the supporting price point of 845 and resistance point of 873 for further trading activity.

Short-term trading recommendation: Increase proportions when VN-Index crosses 965 points and decrease when VN-Index falls to 940 points.
Mid to long-term trading recommendaton: Increase basic stocks in portfolio in the event of business outcome and income statement in the second quarter.

Stocks technical analysis
Positive: CTD, PNJ, SCR   
Consolidate:VCB
Negative: VEA

iBroker
Weekly update: ACV, VSC, DGC, VCB

iInvest: Portfolio of high dividend and positive liquidity stocks sees an impressive revenue growth of 19.56% in 6 months and 1.24% during last week. Trailing after is the oil portfolio which sees a fall of 2.3% during the week and a rise of 16.14% in the first 6 months.

Next week highlights                               

• Macroeconomics indicator for 6 months and the month of June 2019
• Income statement for the second quarter of some listed companies
• US and China leaders' meeting aside from G20 summit and trade talks between US-China
• Oil prices continue to fluctuate as tension in the Bay area escalates
• On 1/7, OPEC meeting, US publishes PMI. 3/7, EU publishes PMI; Canada net export - import data and Australia retail data. 5/7, US average income per hour and unemployment data; Canada unemployment data.