Overcoming 965 points with support from stocks with large market capitalization and banking stocks, VN-Index continued to approach 985 points before the second quarter earnings announcement season. The positive trend of the world markets, and the positive preliminary results of some stocks supported VN-Index to rise, breaking the fluctuating trading situation in the previous 4 weeks. VHM, GAS and Banking stocks (VCB, CTG, BID) were the main gaining motivation of VN-Index last week. The market gained on a large scale with 16/18 gaining industries. Information about the US-China negotiation round will restart next week and the announcement of Q2 business results remain the main motivation for the market next week
The stock market maintained the gaining momentum in the process of waiting for news. Oil prices fell while USD Index rebounded. The world stock market mostly increased except for the decrease of -1.1% of the Chinese market in the past week. USD Index recovered by 0.8%, mainly increasing against EUR and CHF. VND is seeing positive movements when increasing 0.3% against USD in the last week. Bcomp index decreased by -1.5%, mainly from the decrease of -9.3% of rubber, -4.8% of oil price, -4.7% of wheat, -3.7% of lead, and -3.1% of hot rolled steel. World markets will also be affected by the results of the US-China trade meeting next week, as well as the macroeconomic data of key economies.
Credit growth reached 7.33% in the first 6 months as the SBV bought a lot of foreign exchange to increase the highest foreign exchange reserve. Credit growth of 7.33% is equivalent to the same period of 2018, increasing sharply compared to 5.74% at the end of May. The interest rate is stable, the exchange rate is well controlled with the adjustment of the central exchange rate by 1% and The rates of commercial banks adjusted 0.3% -0.4%. In the past week, interest rates decreased rapidly by 55, 44, 22 percentage points for overnight, 1 week, and 1 month periods. The SBV continued to issue 34,999 billion 7-day bills with 3% interest rate while there was no transaction on the open market. This movement shows that the short-term liquidity tension has temporarily gone away due to seasonal effects at the end of the quarter. The SBV continuously issued large-sized bills in the past 2 months, also showed that the regulatory authorities withdrew money after having bought a lot of reserves in recent years.
Liquidity remained stable, VN30 is moving positively according to 2-bottom model with target price at 890 points. Futures contracts operate closely to the VN30, the premium is almost unchanged from the previous week at 0.3%, 0.7%, 1.0% and 1.2% respectively at all terms. The average trading value per session reached VND 10,535 billion/session, up 21% compared to the previous week. Open interest increased by 35% to VND 29,365. VN30 has surpassed and tested the resistance of 873 points, thereby strengthening the short-term gaining trend. VN30 is moving in the bottom 2 pattern, crossing the neckline to reach the target price area of 890 points. Futures contract 1907 has 9 days of maturity, so holding a long position may consider taking advantage of the index's recovery trend next week.
Short-term trading recommendation: Rotation trading follows the trend when VN-Index surpasses 965 points and is likely to increase by 985-1,000 points.
Mid and long-term trading recommendaton: Increase the proportion of basic stocks to welcome the second quarter business results.
Stocks technical analysis
Positive: MBB, VRE, BMP, VCS, TCH
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Second quarter business results of listed companies.
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Movement of VN30 before portfolio adjustment on July 15th.
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Information of the US-China trade talks in Beijing next week after two leaders agreed to resume negotiations at the G20.
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July 9, China economic data including new debt, money supply M2, CPI. July 10, Britain announced monthly GDP and production index; Central Bank of Canada announced the overnight monetary and interest rate policy report; FED issued the minutes of the FOMC meeting. July 11, CPI, unemployment benefits, US federal budget balance sheet. July 12, the Ecofin Meeting comprised EU ministers exchanging intra-regional financial issues.
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