Week 29_Waiting for update from the Fed to exceed 1,000 points_TA_HPG, VIC, PNJ, HBC, IJC_20190729

Next week stratergy                               
VN-Index approached the psychological threshold of 1,000 points, the duo VIC and VHM contributed 9/11 points in the week. VN-Index maintained the 4th week of gaining in a row, all points gained from VIC-VHM and HPG's contribution thanks to information of Q2 business result exceeding forecast while banking stocks slightly corrected. Following the uptrend thanks to the buying activity of ETF Premia fund, the price movement of major stocks last week is also expected to come from another open ETFs fund. Nearly 70% of companies have announced earnings results creating a clear differentiation in the market. Activities to announce basic business results are completed next week. The effect from the second quarter business results faded, VN-Index needed a new momentum to maintain the current uptrend. Foreign cash flow supported the market recently and this shift is related to FED's decision next week.

European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged. FED decision at the policy meeting at the end of July significantly affected markets. Contrary to market expectations, ECB has not lowered interest rates and launched a monetary stimulus package. EUR went up in the US CK market. Investors are worried that the decision of the ECB will affect the ability as well as the scale of interest rate lowering from the FED in the next session. The GDP growth rate of the US in the second quarter was only 2.1%, down 1% compared to the same period but higher than the previous forecast that is putting the Fed in front of the possibility of interest rate reduction, however, the dose will have to be adjusted again. World markets continue to wait for news and there is no strong fluctuation last week. Domestically, exchange rates and interest rates are also quite stable. The noticeable point was that the SBV still kept the 7-day bills interest rate at 2.75% and reduced the issuance scale by 9,998 billion VND compared to the previous week. This move still showed that the SBV actively adjusted interest rates and increased market liquidity.

Q2 business result increased by 6.8% with 66% of companies on 2 exchanges announced, VCB contributed mainly. As of July 26, 497 companies, accounting for 66% of the companies listed on the 2 exchanges HSX and HNX, announced Q2 business results with a total of VND 21,226 billion, up 6.8% over the same period. VCB increased by 1,434 billion, contributing largely to absolute profit growth, following MBB (+353 billion), TPB (+306 billion), ACB (+215 billion), and DGC (+148 billion) while companies There was a decline in NPAT including CTD (-305 billion), DPM (-186 billion), PPC (-184 billion), YEG (-183 billion) and DNY (-121 billion). The market differentiated when 35% of businesses grew positively and 9% of enterprises lost quarter II. Banking stocks closed mainly in the second quarter profit growth. The announcement of Q2 business results will focus on the week, the business result will soon be saturated.

Liquidity decreased, open interest increased while future contracts closed closely to VN30 even when the index broke out of the accumulation area of 873-880 points. VN30 broke out of the accumulation area with average liquidity, the future contracts followed closely the movement of the index and kept the price difference of -0.2%, 0.04%, 0.5% and 0.4% at the term. Transaction value fell sharply in the last session of the week, bringing the average session value to 7,699 billion/session, down 2% from the previous week. Open contracts increased by 19% to 21,848 contracts. VN30 has surpassed SMA100 and moved between SMA100 and SMA200. The fluctuations continued to support fast-trading activities in the short term.

Short-term trading recommendation: Continue to consider reducing the proportion when stocks increase strongly at the movement of circulating around 1,000 points.
Medium and long-term investment recommendation: Maintain the current portfolio.
Stocks technical analysis:
Positive stocks: HPG, VIC, PNJ, IJC
Consolidate stock: HBC

iInvest: Last week the MSCI Frontier 100 Vietnam and Building Materials categories saw impressive performance of 2.04% and 1.36% respectively, outperforming the 1.12% growth of VNINDEX. The List of Insurance & Securities and Trade Wars decreased by 1.73% and 1.84%, respectively.

Next week highlights              

• Second quarter business results of listed companies.
• Macroeconomic indicators of import, export, CPI, FDI, PMI, ... July.
• US-China trade talks take place on July 30 in Shanghai. FED meeting monetary policy in July.
• On July 29, the Bank of Japan announced its e