Macro&Market November 2019_Pull back to consolidate_20191104

Macroeconomics
•    PMI increased from 50 in October to 51 in November, products quantity increased for the first time in three months.
•    In 11M2019, total retail sales of consumer goods and services reached VND 4,481.6 trillion, up 11.8% compared to the same period last year, if excluding the price factor, the increase was 9.3%.
•    In 11M2019, registered FDI decreased by 11.2% compared to the same period last year while disbursed FDI increased by 6.8% compared to last year. FDI capital mainly focused on processing and manufacturing sector.
•    The interbank USD exchange rate fluctuated between 23,245 and 23,265 USD /VND, lower than the amplitude in October. Interbank interest rates of all terms sharply increased in November due to the influence of the from  following circulars 22,58,2415,2416

Stock market
•    As of November 29, 2019, VN-Index officially decreased by -28.1 points compared to the end of last month (-2.81% MoM) and HNX-Index decreased by -2.7 points (-2.56% MoM). Since the beginning of 2019, the VN-Index has increased by 78.2 points (+8.76% ytd) and the HNX-Index has decreased by -1.7 points (-1.66% ytd).
•    The average liquidity on the 2 exchanges increased sharply +14.98% compared to October 2019, and maintained at 4,937 billion VND/session and equivalent to nearly 211.9 million USD/session.
•    Foreign investors remained net sellers in November, marking the fourth consecutive month of net selling. In November, foreign investors net sold -1,064 billion dong on the HSX and net bought 119.7 billion dong on the HNX.   
•    P/E of VN-Index decreased to 15.92, equivalent to -2.86% MoM, +5.71% Ytd and HNX-Index fell to 7.43, equivalent to -1.64% MoM, -14.68% Ytd. Compared to October, the P/E of the VN-Index dropped to the 12th position and the HNX-Index held the 20th position in Asia.

Market outlook in December
VN-Index searches for a  trough after losing 2 support levels of 1,000 and 983 points. However, downward pressure decreased due to improvement of business results quarter by quarter, and price is at low level of the year. The VN-Index would fluctuate from 960 points - 1,000 points in December. In December, BSC proposes 2 scenarios as follows:

• In positive case, VN-Index recovered from support range of 950-960 points and increased to nearly 1,000 points by the end of the year.
• In negative case, VN-Index may close below 960 points if there are adverse information externally and pressure to continue divesting from foreign investors.

•    Recommended Stocks

• Industry and stocks are evaluated positively in the Sector Outlook Report 2019 and Quarter 4 Sector Outlook ;
• Stocks with improvements and positive outlook such as Banking, Retail, Information Technology - Postal and Telecommunications;
• Stocks with positive prospect such as Industry Park Real Estate, Textiles, Electricity and Aviation;
• Highly defensive stocks and stock with high dividend payout;
• In the long-term, BSC's recommended stocks will be mentioned in the sector strategic reports for the third quarter, stocks with good changes are recommended in the Weekly Report, and update report for Sector/Company.