Week 43_Impact from EVN increasing the average retail electricity price_241021

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
US stock market maintains upward trend after alternating sessions of ups and downs, Dow Jones continues to set records 
Positive economic data such as September retail sales increased by 0.4%, lower-than-forecast unemployment rate continued to support the market to increase points before the third quarter earnings announcement season. The Dow Jones index set a new record on October 17 while other indexes fluctuated around the peak. The commodity index continued to decline while DXY and US stocks maintained their upward momentum.
- US stock market increased by 0.6% on average, EU600 +0.7%, Nikkei 225 -1.1%; China market recovered slightly after a correction week, CSI index +1%.
- The commodity index decreased by -3%; mainly due to energy prices after the negative comments from OPEC (oil -6.2%, gas -10.8%); steel -4.1% while precious metals increased by 1.7% on average.
- DXY index +0.7% and US TP 10y increased +0.01% in the week.
The ECB cut interest rates by 0.25% to 3.25% at its October meeting, marking the third rate cut in 2024. This is the first time the ECB has cut interest rates in two consecutive meetings since December 2022, but the decision is not surprising given the low economic growth and inflation falling to 1.8% compared to the ECB's target of 2% in 3 years. The ECB also lowered its EU growth forecast to 0.8%. The European economy is less optimistic while the US and China are still more optimistic than forecast. China's third-quarter GDP grew by 4.6%, exceeding the forecast of 0.1% from Reuters and the world's second-largest economy's GDP has a chance to improve when a series of stimulus measures were introduced in October.
China 1- and 5-year interest rates; Interest rates and monetary policy minutes of the Bank of Canada; IMF meeting; PMIs of the UK, EU and the US; US unemployment benefit applications and the 8th session of the Vietnamese National Assembly from October 21 to November 30 are the information to watch next week.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
VN-Index is still struggling to accumulate, waiting for a breakthrough opportunity
VN-Index struggled and decreased slightly by 0.2% with liquidity increasing slightly by 2% compared to last week. Banking stocks still play a role in regulating and supporting the trend, however, large-cap stocks are strongly divergent, holding back the index.
- BID, VCB, STB occupy the top 5 positions and contribute 4.3 points to VN-Index. On the contrary, FPT, GAS, PLX hold the index back.
- The level of divergence is stronger when the business results start to be announced with 8/18 sectors increasing points. The real estate sector recovered after a series of gloomy sessions while Oil and Gas decreased by 4.6% due to the downward pressure of oil and Technology decreased by 3.1%.
- Foreign investors continued to net sell 80 million USD compared to the net selling of 12 million USD last week.
The market is still fluctuating and diverging according to the announced Q3 business results. Investors are taking advantage of short-term fluctuations to trade short-term, buying according to rumors and selling when there is official news according to the announced Q3 business results.
As of October 18, 3 floors had 129 companies announcing Q3 business results with a growth rate of 13.2%. The market has 56% of companies with positive profit growth while 19% of companies are losing money. The group contributing to absolute profit growth includes DBC, VPH, BMP while HND, APG, FTS have a sharp decrease in profit compared to the same period. The announcement of business results will be promoted in the next 2 weeks.
The 15th National Assembly session opens on October 21, lasting 28.5 days. In addition to socio-economic and budgetary issues, the National Assembly will pass 15 laws, including notable issues on the Securities Law, Public Investment Law, Bidding Law, etc.