Week 38_Forecast of ETF Foreign Funds' Trade Volume in Q3/2024_20240917

GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS
The US stock market rebounded strongly after a week of losses, with the S&P 500 rising for four straight sessions
The slight increase in PPI, the lowest inflation rate since Feb 2021, and a small rise in jobless claims are fueling optimism for a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting on Sept 17-18. Stock and commodity indices recovered, while the DXY index and US Treasury yields fell.
- US stock market up by 4%, EU600 +1.6%, Nikkei 225 +0.1%, CSI 300 -2.2%.
- Commodity index +1.2%, driven by a 5% rise in precious metals and 3% in crude oil.
- DXY index down by 0.2%, and US 10-year Treasury yields fell by 0.06%.
On Sept 12th, ECB cut rates by 0.25% to 3.5%, its second cut this year. This was expected as European growth remains slow and inflation is moving toward the 2% target. Investors are unsure whether ECB will pause in October and hike rates in December or continue cutting rates. In the next week, investors might see the Fed's first rate cut, aligning with the global trend toward easing monetary policy.
Key data to watch next week: US manufacturing indices, retail sales, jobless claims; CPI from Canada, UK, and EU; interest rate and FOMC reports; and updates from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and People's Bank of China on 1-year and 5-year loan rates.

VIETNAM STOCK MARKET
The domestic stock market moved contrary to the global recovery trend
VN-Index fell by 1.8% from last week , as several key banking stocks and large-cap stocks weakened. Liquidity continued its downward trend, declining by 18% week-on-week.
- The Banking sector continued to weaken, with SSB notably dropping by 15.2%, contributing a 1.9% decline to the VN-Index, while some mid-cap stocks went against the overall trend.
- 16/18 sectors saw declines. The Insurance, Real Estate, and Oil & Gas sectors fell by over 2.4%, while Information Technology and Chemicals rose by more than 0.3%.
- Foreign investors were net sellers of USD 39 million, a decrease from USD 48 million net selling from the week before.
Next week, market volatility is expected due to ETF portfolio restructuring and futures contract expiration. Investors may consider buying during sharp dips for short-term trading.
In August, 330,000 new securities accounts were opened, the highest in two years. Domestic investors have opened over 1.4 million accounts since the beginning of the year, reaching a total of 8.6 million accounts, or about 8.6% of the population. While this number does not fully reflect the actual participation rate of investors, due to multiple account per investor with stagnant liquidity,  the stock market remains attractive and is likely to meet the government's goal of 9 million accounts by 2025.