BSC Vietnam Sector Outlook 2Q2021_EN

2020: Vietnam – the bright star in the night sky (Macro Outlook 2021). In 2020, in the context that global economy has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam still achieved a lot of encouraging performances, such as:

1.         One of the countries with the best control over the Covid-19 epidemic in the world, the lowest number of social distancing periods is only 4 weeks.
2.          GDP maintains a positive growth rate of 2.9% in 2020 with measures and efforts to revive the economy such as (1) Reducing interest rates, (2) promoting public investment to promote economic growth.
3.         Production and trade activities rebounded in a V-shaped pattern to the level before the epidemic.
4.         Promote participation in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements such as EVFTA, RCEP, UKVFTA.

2021: Vietnam – “New normal – New game” (Macro Outlook 2021)

1.          GDP growth recovers positively (forecasted at 6.2%), accompanied by (1) recovery of foreign goods demand, (2) prospect of increasing FDI capital, estimated to increase by 8.5% in 2021,
2.          Macro supportive policy continues to maintain: (1) fiscal policy to stimulate macro, (2) Credit growth is expected to reach 14%, (3) Disbursement of state public investment will reach VND485.6 trillion.

2Q2021 Market outlook. VN-Index maintained its medium-term uptrend and was able to break through the psychological resistance level of 1,200, move towards the area around 1,300 around the end of May and end June above 1,250. However, the uptrend will break into small wave spans with short-term corrections before continuing the uptrend. World markets are forecast to maintain a prolonged uptrend from last year but it will be a slow and steady increase in the context that the economy continues to be supported by the policies of major central banks. The process of testing new vaccines as well as the distribution of approved vaccines has been accelerated, supporting market sentiment. Along with that, the implementation of vaccine passports by countries will also make the tourism and accommodation industries have a better recovery.